As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1440+ at 61.5% in Next GPT Terra Model (5.7+): Text Arena Debut? — $10.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1440+, is priced at 61.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +8.5 pts.
Since October 23, 2026, 1440+ has traded between 53.0% and 61.5%. It opened at 53.0% and last traded at 61.5%.
1440+ is favored at 61.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1440+ | 62¢ | 61.5% | +8.5 pts | $3.6K | 32.8% |
| 1450+ | 58¢ | 58.0% | +12.0 pts | $2.1K | 19.1% |
| 1460+ | 35¢ | 35.0% | +1.5 pts | $3.1K | 28.7% |
| 1470+ | 14¢ | 14.0% | -2.5 pts | $2.1K | 19.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 60¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$10.8K has been traded on this event in total, $5.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI GPT Terra model (5.7+) added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 172 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wry-Friction-Banquette | No | 172 | $66 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 118 | $46 |
| Piercing-Formation | No | 80 | $31 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 74 | $46 |
| Putrid-Lab | Yes | 57 | $35 |
| Bewitched-Auditorium | Yes | 53 | $33 |
| Runny-Greatgrandfather | No | 50 | $19 |
| Illiterate-Dryer-Normalisation | Yes | 48 | $30 |
| Bronze-Download-Personality | Yes | 40 | $25 |
| Palatable-Hole | Yes | 36 | $22 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $31 |
| Oct 24, 11:13 AM ET | No | SELL | 61.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 11:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 11:09 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 17.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 10:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 82.2% | $41 |
| Oct 24, 10:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 10:18 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 20.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:09 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 10:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 33.2% | $66 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1440+ at 61.5%. Next is 1450+ at 58.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-gpt-terra-model-5pt7-text-arena-debut-20261022?via=bro
$10.8K in total volume, with $5.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.
1440+, priced at 61.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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