Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 84.0% in Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...? — $7.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $46.
Leading outcome
November 30
84%
A 84.0% price implies roughly a 84-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +10.5 pts7D +17.5 pts30D −3.5 pts
November 3084.0%
October 314.5%
Bid
78¢
Ask
90¢
Spread
12¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 22, 2026: 44.0% – 88.0% · Opened at 62.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...?
Category
AI, xAI, Grok, Tech, AI Releases
Scheduled end
November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$7.7K
Volume (24h)
$46
Liquidity
$1.3K
Markets
2
Leading outcome
November 30 — 84.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 84.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.5 pts; past week: +17.5 pts; past month: -3.5 pts.

Since September 22, 2026, November 30 has traded between 44.0% and 88.0%. It opened at 62.5% and last traded at 72.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202649.0%
Oct 17, 202666.5%
Oct 18, 202644.0%
Oct 19, 202671.0%
Oct 20, 202662.5%
Oct 22, 202663.5%
Oct 23, 202672.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

November 30 is favored at 84.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
November 3084¢84.0%+10.5 pts$2.8K36.7%
October 314¢4.5%+0.1 pts$4.9K63.3%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 78¢ / ask 90¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$7.7K has been traded on this event in total, $46 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 216 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueNo216$35
Sore-PitchingYes208$175
0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70ddddaYes105$88
Gleaming-HandlebarNo50$8
Decisive-SpokeswomanYes46$39
Oddball-PoisonNo44$7
Idealistic-ValanceYes42$35
Plastic-LarderNo39$6
Homely-ConservationYes26$22
Direct-ChainstayNo21$3

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $79 at 46.4%BUY No — $64 at 87.1%BUY Yes — $55 at 65.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 02:39 PM ETNoSELL12.2%$2
Oct 24, 02:53 AM ETYesBUY77.0%$20
Oct 23, 04:49 PM ETYesBUY66.0%$13
Oct 23, 04:48 PM ETYesBUY4.6%$3
Oct 23, 04:48 PM ETYesBUY65.0%$55
Oct 23, 11:28 AM ETYesSELL3.4%$2
Oct 23, 11:28 AM ETNoSELL91.0%$8
Oct 23, 11:28 AM ETYesSELL3.7%$28
Oct 23, 05:21 AM ETNoSELL31.0%$4
Oct 22, 09:36 PM ETNoBUY29.0%$2

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 84.0%. Next is October 31 at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-grok-model-4pt8-released-by?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...??

$7.7K in total volume, with $46 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.

When does Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

November 30, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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