As of October 24, 2026, 08:20 PM ET, Polymarket traders price November 30 at 84.0% in Next Grok Model (4.8+) released by...? — $7.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, November 30, is priced at 84.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +10.5 pts; past week: +17.5 pts; past month: -3.5 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, November 30 has traded between 44.0% and 88.0%. It opened at 62.5% and last traded at 72.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 71.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 72.0% |
November 30 is favored at 84.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| November 30 | 84¢ | 84.0% | +10.5 pts | $2.8K | 36.7% |
| October 31 | 4¢ | 4.5% | +0.1 pts | $4.9K | 63.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 78¢ / ask 90¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$7.7K has been traded on this event in total, $46 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's next Grok model (4.8+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Grok" and be designated as version 4.8 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 4.8 or higher named in the same manner as Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, or Grok 4.7 would qualify, including reasoning, Fast, Heavy, or similar variants carrying a 4.8 or higher designation and a new whole-number generation such as Grok 5, while models whose name does not include "Grok" or which retain a version designation below 4.8, such as Grok 4.7 (released September 21, 2026), including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify. Separately numbered product lines that do not carry the core Grok version designation, such as Grok Code Fast or Grok Imagine, will not qualify, and version numbers of the Grok app, website, or other products that do not correspond to a new underlying model will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 216 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | No | 216 | $35 |
| Sore-Pitching | Yes | 208 | $175 |
| 0x29efb149c85a53729c266b7918bfa921a70dddda | Yes | 105 | $88 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 50 | $8 |
| Decisive-Spokeswoman | Yes | 46 | $39 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 44 | $7 |
| Idealistic-Valance | Yes | 42 | $35 |
| Plastic-Larder | No | 39 | $6 |
| Homely-Conservation | Yes | 26 | $22 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 21 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:39 PM ET | No | SELL | 12.2% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 77.0% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 04:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 04:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.6% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 04:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $55 |
| Oct 23, 11:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.4% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 11:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 11:28 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 3.7% | $28 |
| Oct 23, 05:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 31.0% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 09:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 29.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is November 30 at 84.0%. Next is October 31 at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-grok-model-4pt8-released-by?via=bro
$7.7K in total volume, with $46 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 30, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
November 30, priced at 84.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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