Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Israeli Minister of National Security?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:27 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Person N at 50.0% in Next Israeli Minister of National Security? — $73.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $2.2K.
Leading outcome
Person N
50%
A 50.0% price implies roughly a 50-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +0.0 pts7D +0.0 pts30D +0.0 pts
Person N50.0%
Person O50.0%
Bid
0¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
100¢
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Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Israeli Minister of National Security?
Category
World, Israel, Politics, Elections, Geopolitics, Middle East, Israel Election, Global Elections
Scheduled end
February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$73.1K
Volume (24h)
$2.2K
Liquidity
$285.3K
Markets
33
Leading outcome
Person N — 50.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Person N, is priced at 50.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.0 pts; past week: +0.0 pts; past month: +0.0 pts.

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Person N is favored at 50.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Person N50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person O50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person P50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person Q50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person R50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person S50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person T50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person U50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person V50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person W50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person X50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person Y50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person Z50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
No Next Minister by Feb 2837¢37.0%+0.5 pts$20.9K28.6%
Yoram Cohen14¢14.5%+4.0 pts$8.4K11.5%
Bezalel Smotrich11¢10.7%+10.4 pts$1.5K2.1%
Yair Golan8¢7.8%+1.8 pts$4260.6%
Itamar Ben Gvir7¢7.0%-0.5 pts$4.6K6.4%
Yoav Segalovich5¢4.8%—$6670.9%
Talya Lankri5¢4.7%+0.2 pts$7.7K10.5%
Ofer Winter4¢4.5%—$8.8K12.1%
Yoaz Hendel4¢4.2%+3.4 pts$4700.6%
Matan Kahana3¢3.5%-3.0 pts$11.3K15.5%
Elazar Stern2¢1.6%—$2.9K4.0%
Amir Ohana1¢1.4%—$1.3K1.8%
Hili Tropper (Yechiel Tropper)1¢1.1%—$3550.5%
Avi Dichter1¢0.6%—$7811.1%
Eli Cohen1¢0.6%—$3310.5%
Meirav Ben-Ari1¢0.6%—$2860.4%
Ram Ben-Barak1¢0.5%—$4120.6%
Yossi Cohen0¢0.5%—$8611.2%
Gideon Sa’ar0¢0.1%—$1.0K1.4%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 100¢ (bid 0¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$73.1K has been traded on this event in total, $2.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 33 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to the individual who first assumes office as Israeli Minister of National Security in the first government formed following the 2026 Knesset elections. To count for resolution, the individual’s ministership must be approved by the Knesset in a vote of confidence in that government or a subsequent vote approving the individual’s appointment to that government. Any interim or caretaker Minister of National Security will not count toward the resolution of this market. Once a qualifying individual assumes office, subsequent replacements will not affect resolution. The individual must be appointed as “Minister of National Security” or be appointed to the ministerial position confirmed to be its successor position, retaining its primary responsibilities, by a consensus of credible reporting. Positions that assume only secondary responsibilities will not qualify as a successor. If the primary portfolio responsibilities previously assigned to Minister of National Security are attributable to multiple successor positions, this market will resolve to the individual appointed to one of the successor positions whose full name comes first in alphabetical order. If no such Minister of National Security assumes office by February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No Next Minister by Feb 28”. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 713 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
0xa5ef39c3…No713$356
Queasy-CougarYes188$94
Belated-GlueYes124$62
Blue-BendYes122$61
Starry-StudioYes58$29
Messy-Ritual-HopsYes38$19
Velvety-BurnYes35$18
Required-HornYes20$10
Glossy-BelieverYes20$10
Admirable-TrustYes20$10

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $908 at 86.4%BUY No — $836 at 83.6%SELL No — $398 at 98.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:03 PM ETYesBUY37.0%$70
Oct 24, 12:12 AM ETNoSELL63.0%$9
Oct 22, 10:56 AM ETYesSELL36.0%$1
Oct 22, 09:45 AM ETNoSELL98.4%$398
Oct 22, 04:16 AM ETYesSELL36.0%$5
Oct 22, 04:16 AM ETYesSELL37.0%$3
Oct 22, 04:16 AM ETNoBUY62.0%$12
Oct 22, 04:16 AM ETYesSELL38.0%$65
Oct 22, 02:18 AM ETYesSELL7.0%$2
Oct 21, 07:27 PM ETYesSELL0.4%$0

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Israeli Minister of National Security??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Person N at 50.0%. Next is Person O at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-israeli-minister-of-national-security?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Israeli Minister of National Security??

$73.1K in total volume, with $2.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 33 markets.

When does Next Israeli Minister of National Security? end?

The market is scheduled to end February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Israeli Minister of National Security?, according to Polymarket traders?

Person N, priced at 50.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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