As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price None before 2027 at 46.5% in Next leader out of power before 2027? — $1.56M traded so far.
The leading outcome, None before 2027, is priced at 46.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: -10.0 pts; past month: +11.0 pts.
Since July 01, 2026, None before 2027 has traded between 7.0% and 59.5%. It opened at 7.0% and last traded at 46.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 51.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 55.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 46.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 46.5% |
None before 2027 is favored at 46.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| None before 2027 | 46¢ | 46.5% | -3.0 pts | $210.5K | 13.5% |
| Netanyahu - Israel PM | 32¢ | 31.5% | +5.0 pts | $422.0K | 27.0% |
| Lecornu - France PM | 5¢ | 4.7% | +0.1 pts | $40.7K | 2.6% |
| Sánchez - Spanish PM | 4¢ | 4.1% | -1.6 pts | $58.0K | 3.7% |
| Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea | 2¢ | 2.5% | -1.1 pts | $72.7K | 4.7% |
| Abbas - President of Palestine | 2¢ | 1.8% | -0.5 pts | $39.9K | 2.6% |
| Merz - German Chancellor | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $50.8K | 3.3% |
| Macron - France President | 1¢ | 1.5% | -0.6 pts | $48.3K | 3.1% |
| Trump - USA President | 1¢ | 1.3% | -0.1 pts | $45.7K | 2.9% |
| Zelenskyy - Ukraine President | 1¢ | 1.0% | -0.1 pts | $45.4K | 2.9% |
| Lula da Silva - Brazil President | 1¢ | 0.9% | +0.3 pts | $50.9K | 3.3% |
| Xi - General Secretary of the CCP | 1¢ | 0.7% | +0.1 pts | $53.7K | 3.4% |
| Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President | 1¢ | 0.6% | -0.2 pts | $37.4K | 2.4% |
| Albanese - Australia PM | 1¢ | 0.5% | +0.3 pts | $47.3K | 3.0% |
| Díaz-Canel - Cuba President | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $45.1K | 2.9% |
| Erdoğan - Türkiye President | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $42.5K | 2.7% |
| Putin - Russia President | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $40.0K | 2.6% |
| Takaichi - Japan PM | 0¢ | 0.3% | +0.1 pts | $45.2K | 2.9% |
| Sheinbaum - Mexico President | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $38.0K | 2.4% |
| al-Sharaa - Syria President | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $37.9K | 2.4% |
| Milei - Argentina President | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $47.1K | 3.0% |
| Newsom - California Governor | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $42.3K | 2.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 47¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.56M has been traded on this event in total, $14.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 22 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 29,815 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 29,815 | $16.0K |
| Unfit-Hardboard | Yes | 15,831 | $7.4K |
| Wobbly-Pants | No | 9,267 | $5.0K |
| Whimsical-Terminal | Yes | 4,264 | $2.0K |
| Cheery-Preparation | Yes | 3,000 | $1.4K |
| 0x1ff3d3fd… | Yes | 2,799 | $1.3K |
| High-Episode | Yes | 2,790 | $1.3K |
| Sniveling-Passion | Yes | 2,179 | $1.0K |
| Exotic-Prize | Yes | 1,218 | $567 |
| Dismal-Switch | Yes | 1,209 | $562 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 30.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 1.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 68.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 12:11 PM ET | No | SELL | 69.0% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 12:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 31.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 75.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 11:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $84 |
| Oct 24, 11:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 29.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 11:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $35 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is None before 2027 at 46.5%. Next is Netanyahu - Israel PM at 31.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-leader-out-of-power-before-2027-no-starmer-or-petro-20260630194619406?via=bro
$1.56M in total volume, with $14.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 22 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
None before 2027, priced at 46.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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