As of October 24, 2026, 08:18 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Geordin Hill-Lewis at 96.0% in Next Mayor of Cape Town? — $11.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Geordin Hill-Lewis, is priced at 96.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +8.0 pts.
Since August 18, 2026, Geordin Hill-Lewis has traded between 83.5% and 96.5%. It opened at 83.5% and last traded at 96.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.0% |
Geordin Hill-Lewis is favored at 96.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geordin Hill-Lewis | 96¢ | 96.0% | — | $6.7K | 57.9% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Nontando Nolutshungu | 1¢ | 1.1% | -0.4 pts | $326 | 2.8% |
| Ernest Theron | 1¢ | 1.0% | — | $426 | 3.7% |
| Khalid Sayed | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $376 | 3.2% |
| Roger Solomons | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $396 | 3.4% |
| Mareldia Chowglay | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $270 | 2.3% |
| Lwazi Pakade | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $270 | 2.3% |
| Zelda Tarntaal | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $265 | 2.3% |
| Cheslyn Steenberg | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $300 | 2.6% |
| Brett Herron | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $308 | 2.6% |
| Jeremiah Thuynsma | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $271 | 2.3% |
| Ndithini Tyhido | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $316 | 2.7% |
| Luvuyo Zondani | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $265 | 2.3% |
| Fiona Abrahams | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $311 | 2.7% |
| Dereleen James | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $288 | 2.5% |
| Ellen Pakkies | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $515 | 4.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$11.7K has been traded on this event in total, $1 of it in the last 24 hours, across 35 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Municipal elections are currently scheduled to be held in South Africa on November 4, 2026. Cape Town’s mayor will be elected by the newly constituted council at its inaugural meeting, which is expected to be held within 14 days of the municipal election, by November 18, 2026. This market will resolve to the first individual who officially assumes the role of Mayor of Cape Town following the 2026 South African municipal elections. A qualifying individual must be elected mayor by the Cape Town City Council. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of South Africa, including the Electoral Commission of South Africa (https://elections.org.za); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://elections.org.za
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 814 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Firsthand-Incense-Jaguar | Yes | 814 | $782 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 395 | $16 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 351 | $14 |
| Clever-Hellcat | Yes | 220 | $211 |
| Punctual-Hydrogen | No | 192 | $8 |
| Traumatic-Bakery | Yes | 144 | $138 |
| Infatuated-Devastation | No | 130 | $5 |
| Unfolded-Fish | Yes | 112 | $108 |
| 0xf040b361… | Yes | 109 | $105 |
| Known-Use | No | 99 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:57 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.1% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 02:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 3.0% | $0 |
| Oct 19, 04:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 97.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 10:00 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 96.8% | $1 |
| Oct 17, 08:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 17, 06:09 PM ET | No | SELL | 5.0% | $4 |
| Oct 16, 03:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 15, 02:20 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.2% | $1 |
| Oct 14, 10:17 AM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $3 |
| Oct 14, 09:51 AM ET | No | SELL | 6.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Geordin Hill-Lewis at 96.0%. Next is Person I at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-mayor-of-cape-town?via=bro
$11.7K in total volume, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours across 35 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 04, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elections.org.za.
Geordin Hill-Lewis, priced at 96.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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