Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 7.5% in Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...? — $38.8K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $20.
Leading outcome
October 31
8%
A 7.5% price implies roughly a 8-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −1.0 pts7D +2.0 pts30D −81.5 pts
Bid
6¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 04, 2026: 5.0% – 92.0% · Opened at 50.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...?
Category
AI, Meta, Tech, Muse Spark, AI Releases, Recurring
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET
Total volume
$38.8K
Volume (24h)
$20
Liquidity
$571
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 7.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 7.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: -81.5 pts.

Since September 04, 2026, October 31 has traded between 5.0% and 92.0%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 7.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 20268.5%
Oct 18, 20267.0%
Oct 19, 20265.5%
Oct 20, 20266.0%
Oct 23, 20268.0%
Oct 24, 20267.5%
Oct 24, 20267.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 7.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 318¢7.5%-1.0 pts$11.1K28.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$38.8K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 478 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Belated-GlueYes478$36
Weepy-BidetNo393$363
Awesome-AvailabilityNo307$284
Snappy-RoosterYes295$22
Piercing-FormationNo241$223
Fair-TanNo181$168
Portly-Quiet-MycoplasmaNo170$157
Pessimistic-OmegaYes162$12
Round-Crook-WelcomeNo159$147
Gleaming-HandlebarNo148$137

What are the latest trades?

Tape
SELL No — $290 at 90.2%BUY No — $56 at 91.0%BUY No — $36 at 91.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 01:01 AM ETNoBUY91.0%$18
Oct 23, 05:27 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$18
Oct 23, 05:13 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$18
Oct 23, 05:09 PM ETYesSELL6.0%$2
Oct 23, 05:09 PM ETYesSELL7.0%$1
Oct 23, 05:09 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$36
Oct 23, 04:01 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$27
Oct 23, 01:20 PM ETNoBUY91.0%$36
Oct 21, 09:12 PM ETNoSELL90.0%$2
Oct 21, 09:12 PM ETNoSELL90.0%$14

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-muse-spark-1pt4-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...??

$38.8K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 7.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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