As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 7.5% in Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by...? — $38.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 7.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: -81.5 pts.
Since September 04, 2026, October 31 has traded between 5.0% and 92.0%. It opened at 50.5% and last traded at 7.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 8.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 7.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 5.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 6.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 8.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 7.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 7.5% |
October 31 is favored at 7.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 8¢ | 7.5% | -1.0 pts | $11.1K | 28.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 6¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$38.8K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 478 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 478 | $36 |
| Weepy-Bidet | No | 393 | $363 |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 307 | $284 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 295 | $22 |
| Piercing-Formation | No | 241 | $223 |
| Fair-Tan | No | 181 | $168 |
| Portly-Quiet-Mycoplasma | No | 170 | $157 |
| Pessimistic-Omega | Yes | 162 | $12 |
| Round-Crook-Welcome | No | 159 | $147 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 148 | $137 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:01 AM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 05:27 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 05:13 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 05:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 6.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 05:09 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:09 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $36 |
| Oct 23, 04:01 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $27 |
| Oct 23, 01:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 91.0% | $36 |
| Oct 21, 09:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $2 |
| Oct 21, 09:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 7.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-muse-spark-1pt4-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$38.8K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 7.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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