As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1480+ at 53.0% in Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut? — $25.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1480+, is priced at 53.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -11.0 pts; past week: -32.0 pts; past month: -19.5 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, 1480+ has traded between 46.5% and 93.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 53.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 84.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 80.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 66.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 53.0% |
1480+ is favored at 53.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1480+ | 53¢ | 53.0% | -11.0 pts | $9.2K | 35.9% |
| 1490+ | 44¢ | 44.5% | -7.0 pts | $4.9K | 19.1% |
| 1500+ | 44¢ | 43.5% | -6.0 pts | $7.2K | 28.4% |
| 1510+ | 18¢ | 18.5% | +0.5 pts | $4.3K | 16.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 51¢ / ask 55¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$25.5K has been traded on this event in total, $600 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 07:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta Muse Spark model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,341 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gullible-Grassland | Yes | 1,341 | $710 |
| Piercing-Formation | No | 1,008 | $474 |
| Sore-Pitching | No | 701 | $329 |
| Impartial-Harmonize | Yes | 375 | $199 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 157 | $83 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 118 | $55 |
| Required-Horn | No | 65 | $31 |
| Well-Documented-Peek | Yes | 62 | $33 |
| Perfumed-Moat | No | 50 | $24 |
| Wretched-Myth-Downfall | Yes | 40 | $21 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 49.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 04:24 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | No | SELL | 57.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 44.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 43.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 03:45 PM ET | No | SELL | 48.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 02:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 46.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 12:34 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 50.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 10:44 AM ET | No | SELL | 38.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:42 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 55.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1480+ at 53.0%. Next is 1490+ at 44.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-muse-spark-1pt4-text-arena-debut?via=bro
$25.5K in total volume, with $600 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 07:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.
1480+, priced at 53.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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