Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1480+ at 53.0% in Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut? — $25.5K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $600.
Leading outcome
1480+
53%
A 53.0% price implies roughly a 53-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −11.0 pts7D −32.0 pts30D −19.5 pts
1480+53.0%
1490+44.5%
Bid
51¢
Ask
55¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 22, 2026: 46.5% – 93.5% · Opened at 72.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut?
Category
AI, Meta, Tech, Debut, Muse Spark, AI Releases
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 07:59 PM ET
Total volume
$25.5K
Volume (24h)
$600
Liquidity
$1.0K
Markets
4
Leading outcome
1480+ — 53.0%
Resolution source
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, 1480+, is priced at 53.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -11.0 pts; past week: -32.0 pts; past month: -19.5 pts.

Since September 22, 2026, 1480+ has traded between 46.5% and 93.5%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 53.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202672.5%
Oct 16, 202684.0%
Oct 18, 202680.0%
Oct 19, 202666.0%
Oct 20, 202671.5%
Oct 23, 202663.5%
Oct 24, 202653.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

1480+ is favored at 53.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
1480+53¢53.0%-11.0 pts$9.2K35.9%
1490+44¢44.5%-7.0 pts$4.9K19.1%
1500+44¢43.5%-6.0 pts$7.2K28.4%
1510+18¢18.5%+0.5 pts$4.3K16.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 51¢ / ask 55¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$25.5K has been traded on this event in total, $600 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 07:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Meta Muse Spark model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has at least the specified score at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,341 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Gullible-GrasslandYes1,341$710
Piercing-FormationNo1,008$474
Sore-PitchingNo701$329
Impartial-HarmonizeYes375$199
Snappy-RoosterYes157$83
Belated-GlueNo118$55
Required-HornNo65$31
Well-Documented-PeekYes62$33
Perfumed-MoatNo50$24
Wretched-Myth-DownfallYes40$21

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $177 at 22.5%BUY Yes — $114 at 65.0%SELL No — $88 at 27.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 05:31 PM ETNoBUY49.0%$10
Oct 24, 04:24 PM ETYesBUY37.0%$7
Oct 24, 03:45 PM ETNoSELL57.0%$11
Oct 24, 03:45 PM ETYesBUY44.0%$9
Oct 24, 03:45 PM ETYesBUY43.0%$9
Oct 24, 03:45 PM ETNoSELL48.0%$7
Oct 24, 02:11 PM ETYesBUY46.0%$9
Oct 24, 12:34 PM ETYesBUY50.0%$4
Oct 24, 10:44 AM ETNoSELL38.0%$0
Oct 24, 10:42 AM ETYesSELL55.0%$10

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1480+ at 53.0%. Next is 1490+ at 44.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-muse-spark-1pt4-text-arena-debut?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut??

$25.5K in total volume, with $600 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.

When does Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut? end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 07:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Muse Spark (1.4+): Text Arena Debut?, according to Polymarket traders?

1480+, priced at 53.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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