Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?

As of October 24, 2026, 07:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No release by October 31 at 92.5% in Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...? — $58.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $85.
Leading outcome
No release by October 31
92%
A 92.5% price implies roughly a 92-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −1.0 pts30D +82.0 pts
No release by October 3192.5%
October 301.1%
Bid
92¢
Ask
93¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 23, 2026: 7.5% – 95.5% · Opened at 16.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?
Category
AI, Meta, Tech, Muse Spark, AI Releases
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET
Total volume
$58.4K
Volume (24h)
$85
Liquidity
$33.7K
Markets
9
Leading outcome
No release by October 31 — 92.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, No release by October 31, is priced at 92.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: +82.0 pts.

Since September 23, 2026, No release by October 31 has traded between 7.5% and 95.5%. It opened at 16.0% and last traded at 92.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202695.5%
Oct 18, 202694.5%
Oct 19, 202694.0%
Oct 20, 202694.5%
Oct 22, 202692.5%
Oct 23, 202692.5%
Oct 24, 202692.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

No release by October 31 is favored at 92.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
No release by October 3192¢92.5%—$18.7K32.0%
October 301¢1.1%—$5691.0%
October 251¢0.5%—$5520.9%
October 271¢0.5%—$3590.6%
October 281¢0.5%-0.1 pts$3.3K5.7%
October 291¢0.5%—$3450.6%
October 260¢0.5%—$1.2K2.1%
October 310¢0.5%—$7381.3%
October 240¢0.4%-0.1 pts$5340.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 93¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$58.4K has been traded on this event in total, $85 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Meta's next Muse Spark model (1.4+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Muse Spark" and be designated as version 1.4 or higher, regardless of capitalization, hyphenation, spacing, or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 1.4 or higher named in the same manner as Muse Spark 1.2 or Muse Spark 1.3 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Muse Spark 2, while models whose name does not include "Muse Spark" or which retain a version designation below 1.4, such as Muse Spark 1.3 (released September 2, 2026, including any of its reasoning modes, open-weight re-releases, rollouts, promotions, or snapshots), Muse Glimmer, or Muse Image, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Meta as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,750 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Piercing-FormationYes2,750$2.5K
Noteworthy-PunchYes1,153$1.1K
Ancient-BlackberryNo771$58
Golden-UnemploymentNo559$42
0xa5ef39c3…No519$39
Belated-GlueNo456$34
Round-Crook-WelcomeYes357$330
Wide-Eyed-DarkNo318$24
0x14a1783e…No220$16
Essential-DiaristNo204$15

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.2K at 78.0%BUY No — $275 at 91.7%BUY No — $255 at 79.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 03:45 PM ETYesSELL92.0%$1
Oct 24, 03:45 PM ETYesSELL92.0%$1
Oct 24, 09:25 AM ETNoBUY8.0%$4
Oct 24, 01:01 AM ETNoBUY8.0%$2
Oct 23, 05:27 PM ETNoBUY8.0%$2
Oct 23, 05:13 PM ETNoBUY8.0%$2
Oct 23, 05:09 PM ETNoBUY8.0%$3
Oct 23, 04:01 PM ETNoBUY8.0%$2
Oct 23, 01:20 PM ETNoBUY8.0%$3
Oct 23, 08:07 AM ETYesBUY93.0%$19

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No release by October 31 at 92.5%. Next is October 30 at 1.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-muse-spark-model-1pt4-released-onptptpt-20260922133617102?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...??

$58.4K in total volume, with $85 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.

When does Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 07:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Muse Spark Model (1.4+) released on...?, according to Polymarket traders?

No release by October 31, priced at 92.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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