As of October 24, 2026, 07:52 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Giorgia Meloni at 50.5% in Next Prime Minister of Italy? — $96.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Giorgia Meloni, is priced at 50.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past week: -2.5 pts; past month: -1.5 pts.
Since April 21, 2026, Giorgia Meloni has traded between 36.0% and 64.0%. It opened at 45.5% and last traded at 52.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 49.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 53.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 53.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 52.5% |
Giorgia Meloni is favored at 50.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giorgia Meloni | 50¢ | 50.5% | -2.0 pts | $14.1K | 14.6% |
| Giuseppe Conte | 17¢ | 17.0% | -1.5 pts | $6.1K | 6.4% |
| Elly Schlein | 16¢ | 16.5% | — | $6.8K | 7.1% |
| Roberto Vannacci | 8¢ | 8.5% | — | $38.7K | 40.1% |
| Silvia Salis | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $10.6K | 11.1% |
| Matteo Renzi | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $2.6K | 2.7% |
| Mario Draghi | 1¢ | 0.7% | -0.3 pts | $3.5K | 3.6% |
| Matteo Salvini | 1¢ | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $5.0K | 5.2% |
| Antonio Tajani | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $2.4K | 2.5% |
| Guido Crosetto | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $1.7K | 1.7% |
| Angelo Bonelli | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $2.4K | 2.5% |
| Carlo Calenda | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $2.4K | 2.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 48¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$96.3K has been traded on this event in total, $202 of it in the last 24 hours, across 60 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 7,288 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 7,288 | $3.6K |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 4,731 | $2.4K |
| Mature-Monsoon | Yes | 527 | $266 |
| Kind-Scimitar | Yes | 424 | $214 |
| Bronze-Round | Yes | 413 | $209 |
| Definitive-Mankind | No | 391 | $193 |
| Exemplary-Tick | Yes | 337 | $170 |
| Barren-Sleuth | No | 291 | $144 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 272 | $137 |
| Tempting-Syndicate | Yes | 222 | $112 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 48.0% | $43 |
| Oct 24, 04:46 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 50.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 04:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 51.0% | $31 |
| Oct 23, 08:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 92.6% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 03:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 54.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 03:53 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 54.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 04:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 53.7% | $100 |
| Oct 22, 10:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 51.0% | $5 |
| Oct 22, 10:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.6% | $14 |
| Oct 22, 10:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 92.5% | $14 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Giorgia Meloni at 50.5%. Next is Giuseppe Conte at 17.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-italy?via=bro
$96.3K in total volume, with $202 traded in the last 24 hours across 60 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.
Giorgia Meloni, priced at 50.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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