As of October 24, 2026, 06:23 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Christopher Luxon at 58.0% in Next Prime Minister of New Zealand? — $55.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Christopher Luxon, is priced at 58.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: +5.5 pts; past month: +4.0 pts.
Since April 30, 2026, Christopher Luxon has traded between 19.0% and 67.5%. It opened at 25.0% and last traded at 58.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 52.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 51.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 58.0% |
Christopher Luxon is favored at 58.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Luxon | 58¢ | 58.0% | -4.0 pts | $17.7K | 31.7% |
| Chris Hipkins | 42¢ | 42.0% | +5.0 pts | $16.7K | 29.9% |
| David Seymour | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.3 pts | $3.6K | 6.5% |
| Carmel Sepuloni | 0¢ | 0.2% | +0.1 pts | $3.8K | 6.8% |
| Winston Peters | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $4.2K | 7.5% |
| Nicola Willis | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $5.8K | 10.4% |
| Chlöe Swarbrick | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.2 pts | $3.9K | 7.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 57¢ / ask 59¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$55.7K has been traded on this event in total, $5.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 34 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of New Zealand following the 2026 General elections. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed by the Governor-General as Prime Minister of New Zealand. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of New Zealand; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,344 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 4,344 | $1.8K |
| Immense-Mill | Yes | 2,949 | $1.7K |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 1,512 | $877 |
| Lonely-Pronunciation-Jewellery | Yes | 1,273 | $738 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 945 | $397 |
| Cultivated-Diesel | No | 591 | $248 |
| Joyous-Catalyst | No | 586 | $246 |
| Outlandish-Complicity | No | 400 | $168 |
| Liquid-Argument | No | 309 | $130 |
| Svelte-Lawn | Yes | 300 | $174 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 41.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 59.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 03:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 42.0% | $118 |
| Oct 24, 03:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 12:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 58.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 12:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 12:57 PM ET | No | BUY | 42.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:16 AM ET | No | BUY | 42.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Christopher Luxon at 58.0%. Next is Chris Hipkins at 42.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-prime-minister-of-new-zealand-174?via=bro
$55.7K in total volume, with $5.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 34 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Christopher Luxon, priced at 58.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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