As of October 24, 2026, 09:13 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 38.5% in Next UK by-election called by…? — $790 traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 38.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: -9.0 pts; past month: +7.0 pts.
Since September 14, 2026, December 31 has traded between 29.5% and 50.5%. It opened at 43.0% and last traded at 41.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 44.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 40.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 41.5% |
December 31 is favored at 38.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 38¢ | 38.5% | -3.0 pts | $325 | 41.2% |
| October 31 | 6¢ | 6.0% | -2.0 pts | $465 | 58.8% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 19¢ (bid 29¢ / ask 48¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$790 has been traded on this event in total, $50 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a writ calling for a parliamentary by-election in a UK parliamentary constituency is issued by the UK Clerk of the Crown in Chancery by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The issuance of a writ must be confirmed within the specified timeframe to qualify. Only a writ issued after market creation will count. The writ for the Holborn and St Pancras by-election, issued prior to market creation, will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United Kingdom, including the UK Parliament and the relevant local government conducting the election; however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 124 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 124 | $48 |
| Well-Documented-Category-Tissue | No | 100 | $62 |
| Known-Use | No | 50 | $31 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | Yes | 50 | $19 |
| Made-Up-Chemical | Yes | 48 | $19 |
| Tricky-Usher | No | 36 | $22 |
| Exhausted-String | No | 24 | $15 |
| Colossal-Flugelhorn | No | 6 | $4 |
| Pristine-Lipoprotein | No | 6 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 11:50 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 01:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $24 |
| Oct 09, 02:09 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $17 |
| Oct 09, 02:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 88.1% | $194 |
| Oct 05, 07:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 78.0% | $5 |
| Oct 04, 03:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $16 |
| Oct 04, 01:13 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.0% | $16 |
| Oct 02, 08:45 AM ET | No | SELL | 55.2% | $27 |
| Sep 29, 05:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 52.0% | $25 |
| Sep 29, 05:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 22.2% | $25 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 38.5%. Next is October 31 at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-uk-by-election-called-by-20260914?via=bro
$790 in total volume, with $50 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 38.5% as of October 24, 2026, 09:03 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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