Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 34.5% in Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? — $834.1K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $13.0K.
Leading outcome
December 31, 2026
34%
A 34.5% price implies roughly a 34-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −1.0 pts30D −35.0 pts
December 31, 202634.5%
November 30, 202626.0%
Bid
34¢
Ask
35¢
Spread
1¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 22, 2026: 33.5% – 79.5% · Opened at 69.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
Category
Iran, meet, Trump, Vance, US-Iran, meeting, Politics, Peace Deal, Geopolitics, U.S. x Iran, Iran Ceasefire, Diplomatic meeting
Scheduled end
December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET
Total volume
$834.1K
Volume (24h)
$13.0K
Liquidity
$147.8K
Markets
3
Leading outcome
December 31, 2026 — 34.5%
Resolution source
https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 34.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -35.0 pts.

Since September 22, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 33.5% and 79.5%. It opened at 69.0% and last traded at 34.5%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202633.5%
Oct 18, 202634.5%
Oct 19, 202641.5%
Oct 20, 202639.5%
Oct 22, 202636.5%
Oct 23, 202634.5%
Oct 24, 202634.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

December 31, 2026 is favored at 34.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
December 31, 202634¢34.5%—$208.8K25.0%
November 30, 202626¢26.0%+3.0 pts$67.7K8.1%
October 31, 20266¢5.5%—$257.7K30.9%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 34¢ / ask 35¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$834.1K has been traded on this event in total, $13.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.

On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,850 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Scarce-RabbiNo8,850$5.8K
Grumpy-UrnNo8,790$5.8K
Villainous-VolatilityYes8,025$2.8K
Extroverted-DevelopmentYes6,260$2.2K
Bleak-FullNo6,012$3.9K
Remarkable-Conifer-CandelabraNo4,545$3.0K
Finished-WindNo3,422$2.2K
Sneaky-StationwagonYes2,341$808
Giving-PetticoatYes2,260$780
Spiffy-Enactment-StrengthYes2,018$696

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $1.9K at 95.0%BUY Yes — $833 at 24.0%BUY No — $467 at 65.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:50 PM ETYesBUY34.0%$41
Oct 24, 05:55 PM ETNoBUY95.0%$55
Oct 24, 05:26 PM ETYesSELL33.0%$66
Oct 24, 05:26 PM ETNoBUY74.1%$148
Oct 24, 05:24 PM ETYesSELL26.0%$39
Oct 24, 05:24 PM ETYesSELL5.0%$30
Oct 24, 05:21 PM ETNoSELL66.0%$41
Oct 24, 05:10 PM ETYesBUY6.0%$12
Oct 24, 04:59 PM ETYesSELL33.0%$4
Oct 24, 04:41 PM ETYesSELL26.0%$7

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 34.5%. Next is November 30, 2026 at 26.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...??

$834.1K in total volume, with $13.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.

When does Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon.

What is the most likely outcome of Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

December 31, 2026, priced at 34.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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