As of October 24, 2026, 06:56 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31, 2026 at 34.5% in Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...? — $834.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, 2026, is priced at 34.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -35.0 pts.
Since September 22, 2026, December 31, 2026 has traded between 33.5% and 79.5%. It opened at 69.0% and last traded at 34.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 33.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 39.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 34.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 34.5% |
December 31, 2026 is favored at 34.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 34¢ | 34.5% | — | $208.8K | 25.0% |
| November 30, 2026 | 26¢ | 26.0% | +3.0 pts | $67.7K | 8.1% |
| October 31, 2026 | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $257.7K | 30.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 34¢ / ask 35¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$834.1K has been traded on this event in total, $13.0K of it in the last 24 hours, across 3 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET.
On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,850 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Scarce-Rabbi | No | 8,850 | $5.8K |
| Grumpy-Urn | No | 8,790 | $5.8K |
| Villainous-Volatility | Yes | 8,025 | $2.8K |
| Extroverted-Development | Yes | 6,260 | $2.2K |
| Bleak-Full | No | 6,012 | $3.9K |
| Remarkable-Conifer-Candelabra | No | 4,545 | $3.0K |
| Finished-Wind | No | 3,422 | $2.2K |
| Sneaky-Stationwagon | Yes | 2,341 | $808 |
| Giving-Petticoat | Yes | 2,260 | $780 |
| Spiffy-Enactment-Strength | Yes | 2,018 | $696 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $41 |
| Oct 24, 05:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.0% | $55 |
| Oct 24, 05:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $66 |
| Oct 24, 05:26 PM ET | No | BUY | 74.1% | $148 |
| Oct 24, 05:24 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $39 |
| Oct 24, 05:24 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 5.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 05:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 66.0% | $41 |
| Oct 24, 05:10 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 6.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 04:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 33.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:41 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 34.5%. Next is November 30, 2026 at 26.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-us-iran-senior-diplomatic-meeting-byptptpt?via=bro
$834.1K in total volume, with $13.0K traded in the last 24 hours across 3 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 06:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon.
December 31, 2026, priced at 34.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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