PolymarketBro
Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next US Senate Minority Leader?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price John Thune at 53.0% in Next US Senate Minority Leader? — $13.2K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $222.
Leading outcome
John Thune
53%
A 53.0% price implies roughly a 53-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D +6.5 pts30D +18.0 pts
John Thune53.0%
Person D50.0%
Bid
51¢
Ask
55¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since September 23, 2026: 32.0% – 53.0% · Opened at 49.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next US Senate Minority Leader?
Category
Trump, Senate, Congress, Midterms, Politics, Elections, US Election, World Elections
Scheduled end
January 02, 2027, 07:00 PM ET
Total volume
$13.2K
Volume (24h)
$222
Liquidity
$125.7K
Markets
59
Leading outcome
John Thune — 53.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, John Thune, is priced at 53.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: +6.5 pts; past month: +18.0 pts.

Since September 23, 2026, John Thune has traded between 32.0% and 53.0%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 53.0%.

DayClose
Oct 14, 202645.5%
Oct 15, 202646.0%
Oct 16, 202646.5%
Oct 18, 202646.5%
Oct 19, 202645.5%
Oct 20, 202645.5%
Oct 23, 202653.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

John Thune is favored at 53.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
John Thune53¢53.0%—$4.5K34.0%
Person D50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person E50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person F50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person G50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person H50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person I50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person J50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person K50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person L50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person M50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person N50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person O50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person P50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person Q50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person R50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person S50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person T50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person U50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person V50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person W50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person X50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person Y50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person Z50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AA50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AB50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AC50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AD50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AE50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AF50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AG50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AH50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AI50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AJ50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AK50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AL50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AM50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AN50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AO50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AP50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AQ50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AR50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AS50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AT50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AU50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AV50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AW50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AX50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AY50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Person AZ50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Chuck Schumer39¢39.0%-1.0 pts$5.9K44.6%
John Barrasso5¢5.0%-2.1 pts$3882.9%
Mark Kelly3¢3.4%+0.1 pts$4643.5%
Rick Scott3¢2.6%+1.9 pts$3212.4%
Patty Murray1¢1.1%+0.2 pts$4813.6%
Tom Cotton0¢0.4%+0.2 pts$2101.6%
Brian Schatz0¢0.3%—$3422.6%
Cory Booker0¢0.2%-0.1 pts$6204.7%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 51¢ / ask 55¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$13.2K has been traded on this event in total, $222 of it in the last 24 hours, across 59 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 07:00 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to the individual who is chosen to be the first Senate Minority Leader in the Congress that convenes after the November 3, 2026, U.S. General Election. If no Senate Minority Leader is chosen by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source will be official information from the United States Senate or official announcements from the caucus organization of the relevant party; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 860 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Cheery-ScienceYes860$456
Disguised-PajamasNo532$250
0xa5ef39c3…No329$155
Elderly-CupolaNo310$146
Belated-GlueYes209$111
Unselfish-Mineral-SundayYes201$106
Guilty-ForebearNo93$44
Creamy-GeologyNo40$19
Anchored-LeprosyNo40$19
Crazy-FishmongerYes38$20

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $99 at 98.9%BUY No — $73 at 91.0%BUY No — $49 at 61.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 23, 11:46 PM ETYesSELL41.0%$17
Oct 23, 10:31 PM ETNoBUY60.0%$12
Oct 23, 10:31 PM ETNoBUY48.0%$10
Oct 23, 10:31 PM ETNoBUY99.9%$20
Oct 23, 11:48 AM ETNoBUY60.0%$12
Oct 23, 09:35 AM ETYesSELL0.1%$0
Oct 22, 07:36 PM ETNoBUY49.0%$1
Oct 22, 07:36 PM ETNoBUY49.0%$1
Oct 22, 07:36 PM ETNoSELL44.0%$0
Oct 22, 12:23 PM ETYesBUY52.0%$10

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next US Senate Minority Leader??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is John Thune at 53.0%. Next is Person D at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-us-senate-minority-leader?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next US Senate Minority Leader??

$13.2K in total volume, with $222 traded in the last 24 hours across 59 markets.

When does Next US Senate Minority Leader? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 02, 2027, 07:00 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next US Senate Minority Leader?, according to Polymarket traders?

John Thune, priced at 53.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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