Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 30.0% in Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...? — $27.6K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $20.
Leading outcome
October 31
30%
A 30.0% price implies roughly a 30-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −16.0 pts30D −55.0 pts
Bid
28¢
Ask
32¢
Spread
4¢
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Range since August 14, 2026: 16.0% – 88.5% · Opened at 16.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?
Category
AI, GLM, Tech, Z.ai, AI Releases, Recurring
Scheduled end
October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$27.6K
Volume (24h)
$20
Liquidity
$344
Markets
1
Leading outcome
October 31 — 30.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 30.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -16.0 pts; past month: -55.0 pts.

Since August 14, 2026, October 31 has traded between 16.0% and 88.5%. It opened at 16.0% and last traded at 30.0%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202662.0%
Oct 16, 202674.0%
Oct 18, 202648.0%
Oct 19, 202659.5%
Oct 20, 202662.5%
Oct 24, 202630.0%
Oct 24, 202630.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

October 31 is favored at 30.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
October 3130¢30.0%—$12.3K44.6%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 28¢ / ask 32¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$27.6K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Z.ai's next GLM model (5.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of Z.ai's core GLM series, have a name or model identifier that includes "GLM," and be designated as a version greater than 5.3, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version greater than 5.3 named in the same manner as GLM-5.2 or GLM-5.3 would qualify, including versions that skip numbers, such as GLM-5.5 or GLM-6, while models with a version designation of 5.3 or below, or derivative models not positioned as the next flagship GLM release, such as GLM-5.3-Turbo, will not qualify. Staged rollouts of a model already publicly accessible before market creation, such as the open-weight or API release of GLM-5.3, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Z.ai as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,425 shares of No.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Awesome-AvailabilityNo2,425$1.7K
Golden-UnemploymentYes1,200$360
Close-Fitness-NightclubNo848$594
Slim-SinuosityYes597$179
Forceful-BargainYes555$167
Wee-SpeedboatYes212$64
Pretty-SaxophoneYes202$61
Evil-RowNo198$139
Impossible-RejectYes183$55
Belated-GlueYes183$55

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $161 at 64.7%BUY Yes — $136 at 32.6%SELL No — $105 at 72.2%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 12:03 PM ETNoSELL68.0%$14
Oct 23, 10:23 AM ETYesSELL31.3%$38
Oct 23, 10:23 AM ETNoBUY74.1%$15
Oct 23, 08:30 AM ETNoBUY65.0%$29
Oct 23, 02:47 AM ETYesBUY26.0%$5
Oct 23, 02:23 AM ETNoBUY89.3%$59
Oct 22, 02:35 PM ETYesBUY32.6%$136
Oct 22, 02:35 PM ETYesBUY40.0%$8
Oct 22, 01:38 PM ETNoBUY71.0%$20
Oct 21, 12:05 PM ETYesBUY41.0%$3

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...??

As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 30.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-zptai-glm-5pt4-released-byptptpt?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...??

$27.6K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...? end?

The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...?, according to Polymarket traders?

October 31, priced at 30.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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