As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price October 31 at 30.0% in Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by...? — $27.6K traded so far.
The leading outcome, October 31, is priced at 30.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -16.0 pts; past month: -55.0 pts.
Since August 14, 2026, October 31 has traded between 16.0% and 88.5%. It opened at 16.0% and last traded at 30.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 59.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 62.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 30.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 30.0% |
October 31 is favored at 30.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 30¢ | 30.0% | — | $12.3K | 44.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 28¢ / ask 32¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$27.6K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Z.ai's next GLM model (5.4+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must be part of Z.ai's core GLM series, have a name or model identifier that includes "GLM," and be designated as a version greater than 5.3, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version greater than 5.3 named in the same manner as GLM-5.2 or GLM-5.3 would qualify, including versions that skip numbers, such as GLM-5.5 or GLM-6, while models with a version designation of 5.3 or below, or derivative models not positioned as the next flagship GLM release, such as GLM-5.3-Turbo, will not qualify. Staged rollouts of a model already publicly accessible before market creation, such as the open-weight or API release of GLM-5.3, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Z.ai as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,425 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Awesome-Availability | No | 2,425 | $1.7K |
| Golden-Unemployment | Yes | 1,200 | $360 |
| Close-Fitness-Nightclub | No | 848 | $594 |
| Slim-Sinuosity | Yes | 597 | $179 |
| Forceful-Bargain | Yes | 555 | $167 |
| Wee-Speedboat | Yes | 212 | $64 |
| Pretty-Saxophone | Yes | 202 | $61 |
| Evil-Row | No | 198 | $139 |
| Impossible-Reject | Yes | 183 | $55 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 183 | $55 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:03 PM ET | No | SELL | 68.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 10:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 31.3% | $38 |
| Oct 23, 10:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 74.1% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 08:30 AM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $29 |
| Oct 23, 02:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 02:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 89.3% | $59 |
| Oct 22, 02:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 32.6% | $136 |
| Oct 22, 02:35 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 40.0% | $8 |
| Oct 22, 01:38 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $20 |
| Oct 21, 12:05 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is October 31 at 30.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/next-zptai-glm-5pt4-released-byptptpt?via=bro
$27.6K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
October 31, priced at 30.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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