As of October 24, 2026, 08:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Down at 71.5% in Natural Gas (NG) Up or Down on March 26? — $2.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Down, is priced at 71.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: +0.4 pts.
Since March 25, 2026, Down has traded between 47.5% and 99.7%. It opened at 50.0% and last traded at 71.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 71.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 71.5% |
Down is favored at 71.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Down | 72¢ | 71.5% | — | $2.8K | 100.0% |
| Up | 28¢ | 28.5% | — | $2.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 43¢ (bid 7¢ / ask 50¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end March 26, 2026, 05:00 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Up" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on March 26, 2026 is higher than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on March 26, 2026 is lower than the Close price for the Active Month of Natural Gas futures on the most recent prior trading day. For each trading day, the closing price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 5:00:00 PM ET on that date. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent closing price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Closing prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the Active Month contract does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, the market will resolve 50-50. For Natural Gas futures, the active month refers to the nearest listed contract month. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://pythdata.app/explore
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 190 shares of Down.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revolving-Hardship | Down | 190 | $136 |
| Unlined-Pole | Down | 167 | $119 |
| Delirious-Cook | Up | 160 | $46 |
| Austere-Assist | Up | 100 | $28 |
| Watery-Creditor | Down | 97 | $69 |
| 0x7d324902… | Up | 92 | $26 |
| Cool-Storyboard | Up | 64 | $18 |
| Writhing-Retention | Up | 50 | $14 |
| Left-Cobweb | Down | 30 | $21 |
| Sharp-Landform | Up | 22 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 08, 05:28 AM ET | Down | BUY | 65.0% | $3 |
| Sep 18, 11:48 AM ET | Up | SELL | 4.5% | $1 |
| Sep 17, 05:46 PM ET | Down | SELL | 41.9% | $15 |
| Sep 12, 10:49 PM ET | Down | BUY | 95.4% | $1 |
| Sep 11, 09:49 PM ET | Down | BUY | 95.4% | $5 |
| Sep 11, 05:03 AM ET | Down | BUY | 95.4% | $6 |
| Sep 09, 05:33 AM ET | Down | SELL | 41.8% | $1 |
| Sep 08, 11:07 PM ET | Down | BUY | 95.4% | $5 |
| Sep 02, 05:05 PM ET | Up | BUY | 50.0% | $1 |
| Sep 02, 03:28 AM ET | Down | BUY | 95.5% | $7 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Down at 71.5%. Next is Up at 28.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ng-up-or-down-on-march-26-2026?via=bro
$2.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 26, 2026, 05:00 PM ET. It resolves based on https://pythdata.app/explore.
Down, priced at 71.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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