As of October 24, 2026, 08:12 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Erwin Wiens at 56.5% in Niagara-on-the-Lake, ON Mayoral Election Winner — $22.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Erwin Wiens, is priced at 56.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -9.0 pts; past week: +0.5 pts; past month: +8.0 pts.
Since August 24, 2026, Erwin Wiens has traded between 38.0% and 67.0%. It opened at 47.5% and last traded at 56.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 67.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 63.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 56.0% |
Erwin Wiens is favored at 56.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erwin Wiens | 56¢ | 56.5% | -9.0 pts | $15.0K | 67.0% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Andrea Kaiser | 36¢ | 35.5% | +7.5 pts | $7.1K | 31.8% |
| Vaughn Goettler | 6¢ | 6.2% | -0.2 pts | $272 | 1.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 13¢ (bid 50¢ / ask 63¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$22.4K has been traded on this event in total, $211 of it in the last 24 hours, across 27 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario mayoral election is currently scheduled to be held on October 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Niagara-on-the-Lake, Ontario.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,252 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lonely-Pronunciation-Jewellery | Yes | 1,252 | $707 |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 632 | $275 |
| Tense-Precedent | Yes | 480 | $271 |
| Weird-Freedom | Yes | 300 | $169 |
| Cultivated-Diesel | No | 298 | $129 |
| Obvious-Geyser-Cutlet | No | 269 | $117 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 204 | $89 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 200 | $87 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 166 | $72 |
| Flaky-Doing | No | 154 | $67 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:10 AM ET | No | BUY | 66.0% | $33 |
| Oct 24, 06:10 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $35 |
| Oct 24, 04:09 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.3% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 12:48 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 63.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 04:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 31.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 04:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 31.0% | $11 |
| Oct 23, 04:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 65.0% | $26 |
| Oct 23, 03:06 PM ET | No | SELL | 65.0% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 02:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $22 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Erwin Wiens at 56.5%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/niagara-on-the-lake-mayoral-election-winner?via=bro
$22.4K in total volume, with $211 traded in the last 24 hours across 27 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Erwin Wiens, priced at 56.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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