As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price December 31 at 4.5% in Nicolás Maduro released from custody by...? — $2.69M traded so far.
The leading outcome, December 31, is priced at 4.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -2.0 pts.
Since January 03, 2026, December 31 has traded between 4.5% and 24.5%. It opened at 12.0% and last traded at 4.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 4.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 4.5% |
December 31 is favored at 4.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $295.7K | 11.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.69M has been traded on this event in total, $80 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is released from custody by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Nicolás Maduro is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes". If Nicolás Maduro is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes". Transporting Nicolás Maduro to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes". Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 18,394 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Meaty-Bin | Yes | 18,394 | $828 |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | No | 17,895 | $17.1K |
| Motherly-Insect | Yes | 12,742 | $573 |
| Prickly-Signup | No | 12,619 | $12.1K |
| Threadbare-Signal | Yes | 11,742 | $528 |
| Strange-Icicle | No | 9,725 | $9.3K |
| tiagos30 | No | 9,144 | $8.7K |
| Pristine-Bunch | Yes | 7,200 | $324 |
| Wooden-Prescription | Yes | 5,000 | $225 |
| Giddy-Draft | Yes | 4,443 | $200 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 07:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 5.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:42 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 09:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $58 |
| Oct 21, 06:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 4.0% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 12:18 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $5 |
| Oct 14, 08:50 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $9 |
| Oct 13, 08:07 PM ET | No | SELL | 95.0% | $18 |
| Oct 13, 02:42 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $9 |
| Oct 12, 09:15 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $100 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is December 31 at 4.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by?via=bro
$2.69M in total volume, with $80 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
December 31, priced at 4.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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