As of October 24, 2026, 07:47 PM ET, Polymarket traders price March 31, 2027 at 16.0% in Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by...? — $298.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, March 31, 2027, is priced at 16.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: -11.5 pts.
Since August 14, 2026, March 31, 2027 has traded between 14.0% and 40.0%. It opened at 18.0% and last traded at 16.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 14.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 16.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 16.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 16.0% |
March 31, 2027 is favored at 16.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 31, 2027 | 16¢ | 16.0% | -0.5 pts | $9.4K | 3.1% |
| December 31, 2026 | 10¢ | 9.5% | +1.0 pts | $289.0K | 96.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 12¢ / ask 20¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$298.4K has been traded on this event in total, $20 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,235 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mellow-Settlement | No | 2,235 | $1.9K |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 1,753 | $280 |
| Dark-Follower | Yes | 1,526 | $244 |
| Immaterial-Stalk | No | 1,000 | $840 |
| bakayo33 - 9934 | No | 223 | $188 |
| Humiliating-Ability | No | 148 | $124 |
| Silky-Geometry | Yes | 125 | $20 |
| Content-Downgrade | No | 90 | $75 |
| Jolly-Mission | Yes | 72 | $11 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 69 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:48 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 86.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 10:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 11:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 05:06 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $1 |
| Oct 19, 11:06 AM ET | No | SELL | 90.0% | $126 |
| Oct 19, 11:06 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 9.7% | $117 |
| Oct 18, 06:32 PM ET | No | SELL | 91.0% | $22 |
| Oct 17, 03:27 PM ET | No | SELL | 80.0% | $16 |
| Oct 17, 03:17 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 12.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is March 31, 2027 at 16.0%. Next is December 31, 2026 at 9.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nigel-farage-out-as-reform-uk-leader-in-2026-20260622233131512?via=bro
$298.4K in total volume, with $20 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
March 31, 2027, priced at 16.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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