As of October 24, 2026, 08:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Mohammed Umaru Bago at 72.0% in Niger, Nigeria Governor Election Winner — $5.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Mohammed Umaru Bago, is priced at 72.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.5 pts; past month: +1.5 pts.
Since August 21, 2026, Mohammed Umaru Bago has traded between 43.0% and 80.5%. It opened at 43.0% and last traded at 72.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 72.0% |
Mohammed Umaru Bago is favored at 72.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mohammed Umaru Bago | 72¢ | 72.0% | — | $4.8K | 95.5% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Abubakar Suleiman | 9¢ | 9.2% | — | $141 | 2.8% |
| Mohammed Kpautagi | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $85 | 1.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 71¢ / ask 73¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$5.0K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 30 markets.
This market is scheduled to end February 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Gubernatorial elections are currently scheduled to be held in Niger State, Nigeria, on February 6, 2027. If the election is officially rescheduled, this market will resolve based on the election held to choose the Governor for the term beginning in 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Niger State gubernatorial election. Any interim, acting, or caretaker Governor will not qualify. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". To be elected Governor, a candidate must satisfy the requirements under Nigerian law, including receiving the highest number of votes cast and the constitutionally required geographic distribution of votes. If no candidate wins the election outright, this market will remain open to account for any further election or runoff, provided this occurs before the resolution deadline. If no candidate has been officially elected by the resolution deadline, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results published by Nigeria's Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and Nigerian government sources.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 722 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-Familiar | No | 722 | $202 |
| Wan-Gymnastics | Yes | 540 | $389 |
| Dull-Universe | Yes | 489 | $352 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 198 | $55 |
| Known-Use | Yes | 87 | $62 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 60 | $17 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 48 | $13 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | Yes | 45 | $33 |
| Arctic-Kickoff | Yes | 41 | $29 |
| Damaged-Bifocals | No | 40 | $11 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 27.0% | $3 |
| Oct 16, 12:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 72.0% | $13 |
| Oct 16, 12:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 72.0% | $13 |
| Oct 16, 12:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 28.0% | $5 |
| Oct 08, 09:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.0% | $36 |
| Oct 08, 09:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 26.0% | $29 |
| Oct 08, 05:11 AM ET | No | SELL | 25.0% | $10 |
| Oct 05, 04:01 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.0% | $2 |
| Oct 01, 06:24 PM ET | No | BUY | 27.0% | $14 |
| Oct 01, 05:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 27.0% | $11 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is Mohammed Umaru Bago at 72.0%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/niger-nigeria-governor-election-winner?via=bro
$5.0K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 30 markets.
The market is scheduled to end February 06, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Mohammed Umaru Bago, priced at 72.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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