As of October 24, 2026, 07:50 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Bola Tinubu at 68.5% in Nigerian Presidential Election Winner — $136.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Bola Tinubu, is priced at 68.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: -4.0 pts.
Since June 02, 2026, Bola Tinubu has traded between 56.0% and 76.5%. It opened at 56.0% and last traded at 68.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 72.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 72.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 68.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 68.5% |
Bola Tinubu is favored at 68.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bola Tinubu | 68¢ | 68.5% | — | $86.9K | 63.8% |
| Candidate A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Candidate P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Peter Obi | 24¢ | 24.0% | — | $26.5K | 19.4% |
| Rabiu Kwankwaso | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $6.6K | 4.9% |
| Omoyele Sowore | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $8.5K | 6.2% |
| Rotimi Amaechi | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $7.7K | 5.7% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 68¢ / ask 69¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$136.2K has been traded on this event in total, $268 of it in the last 24 hours, across 22 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 16, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Nigeria on January 16, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who wins the 2027 Nigerian presidential election. This market includes any potential second round. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of this election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official results as reported by Nigerian government sources, including the Independent National Electoral Commission (https://www.inecnigeria.org/).
Resolution source: https://www.inecnigeria.org/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 8,882 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Near-Familiar | No | 8,882 | $2.8K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 7,211 | $2.3K |
| Lopsided-Stain | Yes | 6,849 | $4.7K |
| Steep-Refund | Yes | 5,400 | $3.7K |
| Barren-Submitter-Analogue | No | 3,652 | $1.2K |
| Favorite-Artist | Yes | 2,857 | $2.0K |
| Awesome-Availability | No | 2,193 | $691 |
| Unlined-Pole | Yes | 1,003 | $687 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | Yes | 850 | $582 |
| Critical-Result | Yes | 821 | $562 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 08:27 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 25.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 12:08 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 12:02 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $7 |
| Oct 22, 08:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.1% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 11:34 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $15 |
| Oct 22, 10:44 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 66.0% | $29 |
| Oct 22, 06:51 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 66.0% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 06:51 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 09:13 PM ET | No | SELL | 31.0% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 09:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $27 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Bola Tinubu at 68.5%. Next is Candidate A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nigerian-presidential-election-winner-20260602162945585?via=bro
$136.2K in total volume, with $268 traded in the last 24 hours across 22 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 16, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.inecnigeria.org/.
Bola Tinubu, priced at 68.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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