As of October 24, 2026, 07:55 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Flavio Cobolli at 95.3% in Nitto ATP Finals: Player to Qualify — $67.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Flavio Cobolli, is priced at 95.3%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.2 pts; past week: +5.8 pts; past month: +2.8 pts.
Since July 29, 2026, Flavio Cobolli has traded between 44.5% and 97.0%. It opened at 59.5% and last traded at 95.3%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 95.3% |
Flavio Cobolli is favored at 95.3%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flavio Cobolli | 95¢ | 95.3% | +0.2 pts | $2.7K | 4.1% |
| Daniil Medvedev | 95¢ | 95.0% | -0.5 pts | $5.1K | 7.6% |
| Arthur Fils | 93¢ | 93.0% | +0.5 pts | $6.0K | 8.9% |
| Frances Tiafoe | 88¢ | 87.5% | +0.5 pts | $1.9K | 2.8% |
| Rafael Jodar | 70¢ | 69.6% | +0.7 pts | $9.5K | 14.1% |
| Novak Djokovic | 15¢ | 14.9% | -0.1 pts | $4.8K | 7.1% |
| Alex de Minaur | 14¢ | 14.5% | +1.0 pts | $8.6K | 12.8% |
| Taylor Fritz | 5¢ | 5.3% | -0.1 pts | $4.9K | 7.3% |
| Jakub Mensik | 4¢ | 3.5% | -0.5 pts | $162 | 0.2% |
| Matteo Arnaldi | 3¢ | 3.5% | — | $20 | 0.0% |
| Andrey Rublev | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $131 | 0.2% |
| Arthur Fery | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $10 | 0.0% |
| Ignacio Buse | 3¢ | 3.4% | — | $89 | 0.1% |
| Valentin Vacherot | 3¢ | 3.2% | — | $10 | 0.0% |
| Learner Tien | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $150 | 0.2% |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $6.8K | 10.2% |
| Jiri Lehecka | 3¢ | 2.9% | — | $2.5K | 3.8% |
| Tommy Paul | 3¢ | 2.9% | +0.1 pts | $1.1K | 1.6% |
| Alexander Blockx | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| Ugo Humbert | 2¢ | 1.7% | — | $278 | 0.4% |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $1.5K | 2.2% |
| Quentin Halys | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $20 | 0.0% |
| Raphael Collignon | 2¢ | 1.6% | — | $10 | 0.0% |
| Luciano Darderi | 1¢ | 1.1% | — | $173 | 0.3% |
| Brandon Nakashima | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $1.1K | 1.6% |
| Casper Ruud | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $581 | 0.9% |
| Mariano Navone | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $252 | 0.4% |
| Stefanos Tsitsipas | 1¢ | 0.8% | — | $215 | 0.3% |
| Alexander Bublik | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $246 | 0.4% |
| Tomas Martin Etcheverry | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $125 | 0.2% |
| Alejandro Tabilo | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $110 | 0.2% |
| Joao Fonseca | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $234 | 0.3% |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $526 | 0.8% |
| Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $206 | 0.3% |
| Zizou Bergs | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $764 | 1.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 93¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$67.3K has been traded on this event in total, $378 of it in the last 24 hours, across 35 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 06, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified player qualifies for the singles main draw of the 2026 Nitto ATP Finals, currently scheduled for November 15, 2026 to November 22, 2026, in Turin, Italy. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A player is considered to have "qualified" if they are named to one of the eight (8) singles main-draw spots according to the official ATP source. If a player qualifies but withdraws before competing, they will still be considered to have "qualified" and this market will resolve "Yes." If the tournament is postponed beyond December 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or the eight-player singles field has not been officially determined within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the ATP Tour (atptour.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,000 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mixed-Joint | No | 1,000 | $47 |
| Unique-Primary | Yes | 896 | $854 |
| Weird-Freedom | No | 310 | $15 |
| Shocking-Retirement | Yes | 286 | $273 |
| Outgoing-Cufflink | Yes | 161 | $154 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 134 | $6 |
| Serpentine-Lycra | Yes | 100 | $95 |
| Celebrated-Jeans | No | 80 | $4 |
| Whimsical-Jet | Yes | 74 | $70 |
| Scarce-Molding | Yes | 52 | $50 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 03:24 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 06:17 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 68.8% | $12 |
| Oct 23, 06:17 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 68.8% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 06:17 AM ET | No | BUY | 31.5% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 04:23 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 66.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 04:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 34.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 04:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 31.3% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 04:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 31.3% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 04:23 AM ET | No | BUY | 29.8% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 03:21 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Flavio Cobolli at 95.3%. Next is Daniil Medvedev at 95.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nitto-atp-finals-player-to-qualify-20260728191143795?via=bro
$67.3K in total volume, with $378 traded in the last 24 hours across 35 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 06, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Flavio Cobolli, priced at 95.3% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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