As of October 24, 2026, 07:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No change at 98.5% in No change or Hike 25 bps favored on October 27? — $54.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No change, is priced at 98.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.5 pts; past week: +3.0 pts; past month: +70.0 pts.
Since September 24, 2026, No change has traded between 20.5% and 98.5%. It opened at 28.5% and last traded at 98.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 86.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 95.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 98.5% |
No change is favored at 98.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 98¢ | 98.5% | +0.5 pts | $54.9K | 100.0% |
| Hike 25 bps | 2¢ | 1.5% | -0.5 pts | $54.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 98¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$54.9K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 08:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "No change" if the "No change" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "Hike 25 bps" option's hourly odds value in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to "Hike 25 bps" if the "Hike 25 bps" option's hourly odds value is higher than the "No change" option's hourly odds value in the "Fed Rate Decision October 2026" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com for the "Time Window (ET)" ending at 12:00 PM ET on October 27, 2026. If the "No change" option's and the "Hike 25 bps" option's hourly odds values are equal for that "Time Window (ET)", this market will resolve 50-50. An hourly odds value is the value in the "Odds of Happening" column that PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes for an option for a one-hour "Time Window (ET)", as shown on the listing page and in the "Odds History" graph. Hourly odds values are compared at the precision published by PredictionMarketOdds.com (one tenth of a percent). If PredictionMarketOdds.com publishes "NO_PRINT" for an option for the specified window, that option's most recent published hourly odds value before the specified window will be used. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://predictionmarketodds.com/fed-october-2026.html
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,480 shares of No change.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flamboyant-Warming | No change | 1,480 | $1.5K |
| Hideous-Racer | No change | 1,029 | $1.0K |
| Distorted-Tavern-Collector | Hike 25 bps | 714 | $11 |
| Complete-Referendum | Hike 25 bps | 621 | $9 |
| Skeletal-Liver | Hike 25 bps | 599 | $9 |
| Bulky-Antler | No change | 574 | $566 |
| Studious-Willingness | No change | 557 | $548 |
| Testy-Operator | Hike 25 bps | 444 | $7 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | Hike 25 bps | 430 | $6 |
| Married-Uniformity | Hike 25 bps | 412 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 07:29 PM ET | No change | BUY | 98.5% | $50 |
| Oct 23, 10:18 AM ET | Hike 25 bps | BUY | 2.8% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:50 AM ET | No change | SELL | 97.2% | $1.2K |
| Oct 23, 08:16 AM ET | Hike 25 bps | BUY | 2.7% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:04 AM ET | No change | SELL | 97.1% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 10:34 AM ET | No change | SELL | 97.1% | $922 |
| Oct 22, 08:00 AM ET | No change | BUY | 98.4% | $20 |
| Oct 22, 05:59 AM ET | Hike 25 bps | BUY | 2.8% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 05:58 AM ET | Hike 25 bps | BUY | 2.3% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 12:09 AM ET | No change | SELL | 97.3% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No change at 98.5%. Next is Hike 25 bps at 1.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/no-change-or-hike-25-bps-favored-on-october-27?via=bro
$54.9K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 27, 2026, 08:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://predictionmarketodds.com/fed-october-2026.html.
No change, priced at 98.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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