As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $100M at 16.0% in Noble FDV above ___ one day after launch? — $18.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, $100M, is priced at 16.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -2.0 pts; past month: +1.0 pts.
Since March 26, 2026, $100M has traded between 11.5% and 50.5%. It opened at 45.5% and last traded at 18.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 12.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 15.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 17.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 17.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 18.0% |
$100M is favored at 16.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 16¢ | 16.0% | -2.0 pts | $1.4K | 7.6% |
| $200M | 14¢ | 14.5% | — | $3.6K | 20.0% |
| $300M | 12¢ | 12.5% | — | $2.6K | 14.5% |
| $50M | 12¢ | 12.0% | +1.5 pts | $4.6K | 25.1% |
| $500M | 10¢ | 9.9% | — | $3.3K | 18.2% |
| $700M | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $1.1K | 5.9% |
| $1B | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $1.6K | 8.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 13¢ / ask 19¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$18.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Noble's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Noble will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Noble (https://x.com/noble_xyz) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution source: https://x.com/noble_xyz
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 139 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xf22b9260… | No | 139 | $117 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 119 | $19 |
| Favorable-Crayfish | Yes | 72 | $12 |
| Unpleasant-Education | No | 64 | $54 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 34 | $5 |
| Snappy-Rooster | Yes | 31 | $5 |
| Forceful-Gynaecology | No | 30 | $25 |
| Known-Use | No | 23 | $19 |
| Mad-Research-Wasp | No | 20 | $16 |
| Plastic-Duck | Yes | 16 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 02:57 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.4% | $3 |
| Oct 14, 02:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.4% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 02:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.3% | $2 |
| Oct 14, 02:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $8 |
| Oct 14, 02:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 90.1% | $27 |
| Oct 13, 05:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $0 |
| Oct 12, 07:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $9 |
| Oct 12, 07:16 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 13.0% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 07:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 87.0% | $87 |
| Oct 11, 08:06 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is $100M at 16.0%. Next is $200M at 14.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/noble-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch?via=bro
$18.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end January 01, 2028, 12:00 AM ET. It resolves based on https://x.com/noble_xyz.
$100M, priced at 16.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
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