As of October 24, 2026, 06:25 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Yes at 79.5% in Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 — $858.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Yes, is priced at 79.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -4.0 pts; past week: -2.0 pts; past month: -3.0 pts.
Since January 06, 2026, Yes has traded between 29.5% and 85.0%. It opened at 58.0% and last traded at 79.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 83.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 83.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 82.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 79.5% |
Yes is favored at 79.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 80¢ | 79.5% | -4.0 pts | $858.3K | 100.0% |
| No | 20¢ | 20.5% | +4.0 pts | $858.3K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 79¢ / ask 80¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$858.3K has been traded on this event in total, $2.5K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/market_products/NEH/NEH+2026.pdf
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 39,762 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Threadbare-Signal | No | 39,762 | $8.2K |
| Illustrious-Spectacles | Yes | 33,374 | $26.5K |
| Blaring-Surge | Yes | 29,262 | $23.3K |
| TAIWANNUMBERONE | No | 13,000 | $2.7K |
| Sick-Regulator | Yes | 10,312 | $8.2K |
| Wretched-Postage | No | 10,021 | $2.1K |
| Whopping-Chiffonier | No | 9,546 | $2.0K |
| Vengeful-Netsuke | Yes | 9,194 | $7.3K |
| Angry-Evaluation | Yes | 7,846 | $6.2K |
| SwissMiss | Yes | 6,492 | $5.2K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 20.0% | $55 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 20.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 19.0% | $228 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 20.0% | $30 |
| Oct 24, 04:55 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 81.4% | $95 |
| Oct 24, 04:54 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 83.0% | $90 |
| Oct 24, 04:53 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 82.0% | $369 |
| Oct 24, 02:02 AM ET | No | BUY | 18.0% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 06:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 83.0% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 06:42 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 83.0% | $4 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Yes at 79.5%. Next is No at 20.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-2026?via=bro
$858.3K in total volume, with $2.5K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 AM ET.
Yes, priced at 79.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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