As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Nothing at 96.9% in Nothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto — $17.9K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Nothing, is priced at 96.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.1 pts; past week: -0.9 pts; past month: +0.2 pts.
Since February 11, 2026, Nothing has traded between 90.5% and 98.3%. It opened at 92.0% and last traded at 97.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 98.1% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.9% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.0% |
Nothing is favored at 96.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing | 97¢ | 96.9% | -1.1 pts | $17.9K | 100.0% |
| Something | 3¢ | 3.1% | +1.1 pts | $17.9K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17.9K has been traded on this event in total, $113 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Something” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET: - Satoshi moves any Bitcoin - Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”. 1. Satoshi moves any Bitcoin This market will resolve to “Something” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction at any time during this market's above-specified time frame. The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources. 2. Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi This market will resolve to "Something" if definitive evidence confirming that Jeffrey Epstein is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public during this market's above-specified time frame. Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to, verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence. If Satoshi Nakamoto is conclusively identified as a group or collective rather than a single individual, definitive evidence that Jeffrey Epstein was a member of that group will qualify. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,000 shares of Nothing.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Straight-Apprehension | Nothing | 3,000 | $2.9K |
| Worldly-Dump | Something | 1,956 | $61 |
| Pleasing-Elm | Something | 912 | $28 |
| 0x8931aa50… | Nothing | 755 | $732 |
| Sophisticated-Cot | Something | 647 | $20 |
| Anchored-Lizard | Something | 400 | $12 |
| Zealous-Dogwood | Something | 380 | $12 |
| Hefty-Thing | Nothing | 291 | $282 |
| Pristine-Bloomer | Something | 236 | $7 |
| Prickly-Offense | Nothing | 200 | $194 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 05:36 AM ET | Nothing | SELL | 95.5% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 05:24 AM ET | Nothing | SELL | 95.9% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 04:59 AM ET | Nothing | SELL | 95.5% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 04:36 AM ET | Nothing | SELL | 96.3% | $24 |
| Oct 24, 03:42 AM ET | Nothing | SELL | 96.7% | $21 |
| Oct 23, 04:53 AM ET | Nothing | SELL | 97.2% | $24 |
| Oct 23, 03:53 AM ET | Something | BUY | 2.8% | $4 |
| Oct 20, 03:05 AM ET | Nothing | SELL | 97.1% | $1 |
| Oct 20, 03:03 AM ET | Nothing | BUY | 99.1% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 01:24 PM ET | Nothing | BUY | 98.8% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Nothing at 96.9%. Next is Something at 3.1%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nothing-ever-happens-satoshi-nakamoto?via=bro
$17.9K in total volume, with $113 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto.
Nothing, priced at 96.9% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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