As of October 24, 2026, 06:29 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 3 at 74.5% in Number of North Korea Missile Tests in October 2026? — $43.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 3, is priced at 74.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -5.0 pts; past week: +44.0 pts.
Since October 01, 2026, 3 has traded between 16.5% and 81.5%. It opened at 20.5% and last traded at 74.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 30.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 32.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 31.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 29.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 67.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 81.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 74.5% |
3 is favored at 74.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 74¢ | 74.5% | -5.0 pts | $9.6K | 22.1% |
| 4+ | 25¢ | 25.0% | +4.5 pts | $13.6K | 31.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 74¢ / ask 75¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$43.1K has been traded on this event in total, $672 of it in the last 24 hours, across 2 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which North Korea (DPRK) conducts a missile launch during October 2026, Pyongyang Time. If a single test event spans multiple calendar days, it will count only for the day on which it began. Only test launches of ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and anti-ship missiles will qualify. Test launches of other systems, including surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS)/rocket artillery, torpedoes, or similar systems, will not qualify. Resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,983 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,983 | $506 |
| Colorless-Compulsion | Yes | 1,421 | $1.1K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 824 | $614 |
| Oddball-Cofactor | Yes | 386 | $288 |
| Loathsome-Ox | No | 276 | $70 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 254 | $65 |
| 0xd0d90cd5… | Yes | 180 | $134 |
| Automatic-Cappuccino | Yes | 150 | $112 |
| Whimsical-Terminal | No | 127 | $32 |
| Rapid-Cartel | Yes | 111 | $82 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:30 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 23.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 24.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 01:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 75.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 01:23 PM ET | No | BUY | 27.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 27.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 11:05 AM ET | No | BUY | 27.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 09:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 26.0% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 04:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 25.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:45 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 21.0% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is 3 at 74.5%. Next is 4+ at 25.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/number-of-north-korea-missile-tests-in-october-2026?via=bro
$43.1K in total volume, with $672 traded in the last 24 hours across 2 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
3, priced at 74.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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