As of October 24, 2026, 08:07 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 35-39 at 48.5% in NZ Election: Labour Party # of seats? — $26.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 35-39, is priced at 48.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.5 pts; past week: +4.5 pts; past month: +14.5 pts.
Since April 30, 2026, 35-39 has traded between 5.5% and 61.0%. It opened at 27.0% and last traded at 47.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 45.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 48.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 47.0% |
35-39 is favored at 48.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35-39 | 48¢ | 48.5% | +2.5 pts | $8.4K | 32.1% |
| 30-34 | 29¢ | 28.7% | -0.7 pts | $3.8K | 14.3% |
| 40-44 | 14¢ | 14.0% | -1.0 pts | $3.0K | 11.4% |
| <30 | 11¢ | 11.1% | +3.0 pts | $1.2K | 4.5% |
| 55+ | 5¢ | 4.6% | +0.1 pts | $1.4K | 5.2% |
| 45-49 | 4¢ | 3.9% | -0.4 pts | $7.5K | 28.6% |
| 50-54 | 2¢ | 1.8% | -0.4 pts | $1.0K | 3.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 46¢ / ask 51¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$26.3K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the Labour Party in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the Labour Party in this election. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
Resolution source: https://elections.nz/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 942 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 942 | $485 |
| Treasured-Liner-Cheddar | Yes | 498 | $242 |
| Dizzy-Lemur | Yes | 350 | $170 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 174 | $89 |
| Awesome-Availability | Yes | 139 | $67 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 104 | $54 |
| Tremendous-Divide | Yes | 92 | $45 |
| Oily-Notoriety | Yes | 76 | $37 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 59 | $29 |
| Watchful-Explanation | Yes | 45 | $22 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 06:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 52.0% | $3 |
| Oct 21, 08:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 48.0% | $7 |
| Oct 21, 08:44 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $4 |
| Oct 20, 05:37 AM ET | No | BUY | 51.0% | $26 |
| Oct 20, 01:12 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 42.0% | $6 |
| Oct 19, 09:38 AM ET | No | BUY | 50.0% | $30 |
| Oct 19, 07:01 AM ET | No | SELL | 55.0% | $13 |
| Oct 17, 12:01 PM ET | No | SELL | 55.0% | $11 |
| Oct 16, 09:47 PM ET | No | SELL | 56.3% | $34 |
| Oct 16, 03:48 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 40.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 35-39 at 48.5%. Next is 30-34 at 28.7%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nz-election-labour-party-of-seats?via=bro
$26.3K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elections.nz/.
35-39, priced at 48.5% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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