As of October 24, 2026, 09:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price National at 53.0% in NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote) — $305 traded so far.
The leading outcome, National, is priced at 53.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.5 pts; past week: -6.5 pts; past month: -10.5 pts.
Since April 30, 2026, National has traded between 32.5% and 72.5%. It opened at 40.0% and last traded at 53.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 46.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 49.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 53.0% |
National is favored at 53.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| National | 53¢ | 53.0% | +1.5 pts | $305 | 100.0% |
| Labour | 47¢ | 47.0% | -1.5 pts | $305 | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 12¢ (bid 41¢ / ask 53¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$305 has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve to “Labour” if the Labour Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the National Party in this election. This market will resolve to “National” if the National Party receives a higher percentage of valid party list votes than the Labour Party in this election. Percentages of valid party list votes received by the Labour Party and the National Party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each party receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Māori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If the Labour Party and the National Party receive the same percentage of valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve 50-50. If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://elections.nz/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 50 shares of Labour.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Belated-Glue | Labour | 50 | $24 |
| Noxious-Constellation | National | 22 | $12 |
| Past-Laboratory | National | 20 | $11 |
| Puzzling-Haversack | National | 9 | $5 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | National | 7 | $4 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Labour | 5 | $2 |
| Far-Thyme | Labour | 4 | $2 |
| Modern-Van | National | 1 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 21, 04:27 PM ET | Labour | BUY | 49.0% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 10:08 AM ET | Labour | SELL | 48.0% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 10:07 AM ET | National | BUY | 52.0% | $10 |
| Oct 21, 10:07 AM ET | National | BUY | 51.0% | $10 |
| Oct 18, 07:13 PM ET | National | SELL | 44.0% | $3 |
| Oct 18, 07:13 PM ET | National | BUY | 50.0% | $3 |
| Oct 18, 01:03 PM ET | Labour | SELL | 49.0% | $1 |
| Oct 18, 01:03 PM ET | Labour | BUY | 56.0% | $1 |
| Oct 03, 05:24 AM ET | Labour | BUY | 50.0% | $2 |
| Oct 03, 05:15 AM ET | Labour | BUY | 40.0% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET, the leading outcome is National at 53.0%. Next is Labour at 47.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nz-election-labour-v-national-of-party-list-vote?via=bro
$305 in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elections.nz/.
National, priced at 53.0% as of October 24, 2026, 09:17 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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