As of October 24, 2026, 08:11 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Labour 0-5% at 39.0% in NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory? — $23.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Labour 0-5%, is priced at 39.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.0 pts; past week: +13.5 pts; past month: +17.5 pts.
Since April 30, 2026, Labour 0-5% has traded between 15.5% and 51.5%. It opened at 26.0% and last traded at 38.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 26.0% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 25.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 26.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 28.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 31.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 35.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 38.0% |
Labour 0-5% is favored at 39.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Labour 0-5% | 39¢ | 39.0% | +1.0 pts | $2.1K | 8.9% |
| National 0-5% | 39¢ | 39.0% | -0.5 pts | $3.8K | 15.9% |
| National 5-10% | 19¢ | 19.4% | +1.1 pts | $1.7K | 7.0% |
| Labour 10-15% | 4¢ | 4.5% | -1.0 pts | $6.1K | 25.9% |
| Labour 5-10% | 3¢ | 3.2% | -1.0 pts | $950 | 4.0% |
| National 10%+ | 3¢ | 3.2% | -0.6 pts | $7.7K | 32.5% |
| Labour 15%+ | 2¢ | 2.3% | -0.1 pts | $859 | 3.6% |
| Another Party Wins | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $520 | 2.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 35¢ / ask 43¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$23.7K has been traded on this event in total, $69 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate. This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered. If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://elections.nz/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 535 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 535 | $326 |
| Silent-Rowboat | Yes | 169 | $66 |
| Ignorant-Verdict | Yes | 130 | $51 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 73 | $28 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 71 | $28 |
| Second-Hand-Species | Yes | 40 | $16 |
| Direct-Chainstay | Yes | 32 | $13 |
| Plump-Implementation | No | 30 | $18 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Yes | 20 | $8 |
| Oddball-Poison | Yes | 15 | $6 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 37.9% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 11:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 11:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 97.7% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 11:34 PM ET | No | BUY | 96.1% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 08:07 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.0% | $29 |
| Oct 23, 03:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 03:18 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $18 |
| Oct 22, 08:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 11:40 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 53.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 05:14 AM ET | No | SELL | 62.0% | $6 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Labour 0-5% at 39.0%. Next is National 0-5% at 39.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/nz-election-popular-vote-margin-of-victory?via=bro
$23.7K in total volume, with $69 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 07, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://elections.nz/.
Labour 0-5%, priced at 39.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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