As of October 24, 2026, 09:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.2% in Obama divorce before 2027? — $2.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.7 pts; past week: -1.5 pts.
Since November 05, 2025, No has traded between 56.5% and 98.0%. It opened at 84.0% and last traded at 96.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.6% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.5% |
No is favored at 96.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.2% | +0.7 pts | $2.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 3.8% | -0.7 pts | $2.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 5¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.2K has been traded on this event in total, $11 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama announce their intention to divorce by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement by the specified date of their intention to divorce will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the divorce later actually occurs, or whether the actual divorce occurs outside of the timeframe of this market. The resolution source will be statements from Barack Obama and/or Michelle Obama, and their representatives, however a definitive consensus of credible media reporting may be considered.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 183 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dreary-Main | Yes | 183 | $7 |
| 0x8931aa50… | No | 153 | $147 |
| Bouncy-Saving | Yes | 123 | $5 |
| Big-Lyocell-Recollection | No | 117 | $113 |
| Beneficial-Kielbasa | No | 100 | $96 |
| Low-Convert | Yes | 65 | $2 |
| Key-Sovereignty | No | 65 | $62 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 49 | $2 |
| Unacceptable-Spaghetti | Yes | 42 | $2 |
| Crafty-Preserves | Yes | 40 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 12:06 PM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 11, 09:54 AM ET | No | BUY | 95.9% | $6 |
| Oct 10, 04:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.8% | $0 |
| Oct 09, 01:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 94.7% | $18 |
| Oct 06, 08:15 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 4.5% | $1 |
| Oct 01, 12:45 AM ET | No | BUY | 97.7% | $21 |
| Sep 29, 03:47 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.4% | $5 |
| Sep 26, 12:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 95.4% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.2%. Next is Yes at 3.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/obama-divorce-before-2027?via=bro
$2.2K in total volume, with $11 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.2% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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