As of October 24, 2026, 08:05 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 1st hottest at 95.2% in October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record? — $30.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 1st hottest, is priced at 95.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.3 pts; past week: -1.8 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, 1st hottest has traded between 48.0% and 97.2%. It opened at 48.0% and last traded at 95.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 94.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 95.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 97.1% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.5% |
1st hottest is favored at 95.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st hottest | 95¢ | 95.2% | -0.3 pts | $18.2K | 59.3% |
| 3rd hottest | 2¢ | 2.5% | — | $8.1K | 26.4% |
| 2nd hottest | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $3.0K | 9.9% |
| 4th or lower | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $1.4K | 4.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 92¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$30.7K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 4 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 29, 2026, 12:14 PM ET.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for October 2026 versus the data points available for all other Octobers on record. Note: If October 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for October 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,900 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Growling-Insectarium | Yes | 3,900 | $3.7K |
| Corny-Hyphenation | Yes | 2,797 | $2.7K |
| Attractive-Stamina | No | 2,268 | $108 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,709 | $81 |
| Appropriate-Antennae-Layer | No | 865 | $41 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 800 | $38 |
| Essential-Diarist | No | 723 | $34 |
| Wretched-Outrigger | Yes | 710 | $676 |
| Courageous-Kilt-Texture | No | 390 | $19 |
| Attentive-Crewman | No | 169 | $8 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 01:20 PM ET | No | BUY | 6.4% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 10:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 6.0% | $6 |
| Oct 22, 09:55 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.8% | $4 |
| Oct 22, 05:32 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.8% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 04:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.8% | $3 |
| Oct 22, 03:53 PM ET | No | BUY | 4.8% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 05:33 AM ET | No | SELL | 1.0% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 03:41 AM ET | No | SELL | 1.0% | $1 |
| Oct 22, 03:08 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 0.2% | $0 |
| Oct 22, 12:56 AM ET | No | BUY | 3.1% | $2 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 1st hottest at 95.2%. Next is 3rd hottest at 2.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/october-2026-1st-2nd-or-3rd-hottest-on-record?via=bro
$30.7K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 4 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 29, 2026, 12:14 PM ET.
1st hottest, priced at 95.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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