As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 4.2% at 35.5% in October Unemployment Rate — $18.3K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 4.2%, is priced at 35.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.0 pts; past week: -3.0 pts.
Since October 02, 2026, 4.2% has traded between 28.0% and 42.5%. It opened at 28.0% and last traded at 35.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 38.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 40.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 42.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 41.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 36.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 35.5% |
4.2% is favored at 35.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4.2% | 36¢ | 35.5% | -1.0 pts | $4.7K | 25.5% |
| 4.1% | 28¢ | 28.0% | -0.5 pts | $6.4K | 35.1% |
| 4.3% | 28¢ | 28.0% | +0.5 pts | $3.4K | 18.4% |
| 4.0% | 6¢ | 6.3% | +1.2 pts | $963 | 5.3% |
| 4.4% | 4¢ | 3.8% | +0.4 pts | $1.2K | 6.5% |
| ≥4.6% | 1¢ | 0.9% | — | $417 | 2.3% |
| ≤3.8% | 0¢ | 0.3% | — | $467 | 2.6% |
| 4.5% | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $426 | 2.3% |
| 3.9% | 0¢ | 0.2% | -0.1 pts | $387 | 2.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 34¢ / ask 37¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$18.3K has been traded on this event in total, $422 of it in the last 24 hours, across 9 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 06, 2026, 08:30 AM ET.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for October 2026. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question. The relevant data release is scheduled for November 6, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,819 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crisp-Scarf | Yes | 1,819 | $646 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 885 | $571 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 536 | $346 |
| Bad-Fool-Enrollment | No | 331 | $213 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 172 | $61 |
| Wicked-Sonnet | No | 146 | $94 |
| Flashy-Sparrow | No | 92 | $59 |
| Unselfish-Mineral-Sunday | No | 54 | $35 |
| Uncommon-Distributor-Belief | Yes | 35 | $12 |
| Tiny-Whisper | Yes | 28 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:11 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 27.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:49 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 01:37 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 37.0% | $48 |
| Oct 24, 11:57 AM ET | No | BUY | 62.0% | $23 |
| Oct 24, 10:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 41.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 10:49 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 38.0% | $8 |
| Oct 24, 10:27 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 07:49 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 07:27 AM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $37 |
| Oct 23, 03:27 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 28.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is 4.2% at 35.5%. Next is 4.1% at 28.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/october-unemployment-rate-2026?via=bro
$18.3K in total volume, with $422 traded in the last 24 hours across 9 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 06, 2026, 08:30 AM ET.
4.2%, priced at 35.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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