As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price 5+ at 97.2% in # of ChatGPT Outage Days in October 2026? — $40.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, 5+, is priced at 97.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.7 pts; past week: +16.8 pts.
Since September 30, 2026, 5+ has traded between 15.0% and 97.2%. It opened at 15.0% and last traded at 97.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 69.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 76.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 70.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 97.2% |
5+ is favored at 97.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5+ | 97¢ | 97.2% | -1.7 pts | $13.4K | 33.6% |
| 4 | 3¢ | 2.6% | +2.1 pts | $7.6K | 19.0% |
| 2 | 1¢ | 0.6% | -0.1 pts | $5.8K | 14.4% |
| 3 | 0¢ | 0.3% | -0.1 pts | $8.8K | 21.9% |
| <1 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $668 | 1.7% |
| 1 | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $3.8K | 9.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 100¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$40.0K has been traded on this event in total, $232 of it in the last 24 hours, across 6 markets.
This market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,277 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conscious-Belligerency | Yes | 2,277 | $2.2K |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 2,179 | $60 |
| Dazzling-Metal | Yes | 472 | $459 |
| Prudent-Bracelet-Proceedings | Yes | 461 | $448 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 243 | $7 |
| Sunny-Hype | No | 200 | $6 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 192 | $187 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 177 | $5 |
| Required-Horn | No | 170 | $5 |
| Weak-Embellishment | No | 161 | $4 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 0.7% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 07:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.9% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 07:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 99.6% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 10:41 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.4% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 09:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 98.9% | $131 |
| Oct 23, 08:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 0.3% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 11:24 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 99.6% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 11:21 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 98.2% | $23 |
| Oct 23, 11:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 99.2% | $13 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is 5+ at 97.2%. Next is 4 at 2.6%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-october-2026?via=bro
$40.0K in total volume, with $232 traded in the last 24 hours across 6 markets.
The market is scheduled to end October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
5+, priced at 97.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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