As of October 24, 2026, 08:14 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Lee Fairclough at 56.5% in Ontario Liberal Party Leadership Election Winner — $17.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Lee Fairclough, is priced at 56.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.0 pts; past week: +13.0 pts; past month: +14.0 pts.
Since August 31, 2026, Lee Fairclough has traded between 16.0% and 63.5%. It opened at 18.5% and last traded at 56.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 44.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 54.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 56.0% |
Lee Fairclough is favored at 56.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lee Fairclough | 56¢ | 56.5% | +2.0 pts | $6.5K | 37.1% |
| Person A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Person M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Navdeep Bains | 32¢ | 32.0% | -4.5 pts | $7.3K | 41.9% |
| Stephanie Bowman | 5¢ | 5.1% | -0.3 pts | $2.2K | 12.3% |
| Eric Lombardi | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $553 | 3.2% |
| Dylan Marando | 0¢ | 0.1% | — | $961 | 5.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 7¢ (bid 53¢ / ask 60¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$17.4K has been traded on this event in total, $84 of it in the last 24 hours, across 19 markets.
This market is scheduled to end November 09, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The 2026 Ontario Liberal Party leadership election is currently scheduled to conclude on November 21, 2026, with voting held from November 9 to November 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next leader of the Ontario Liberal Party as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder leaders appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the Ontario Liberal Party.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,859 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,859 | $808 |
| Numb-Champagne | Yes | 1,453 | $821 |
| mrworldwide | Yes | 644 | $364 |
| Unfit-Hardboard | Yes | 539 | $305 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | No | 484 | $210 |
| Velvety-Burn | No | 393 | $171 |
| Different-Census | Yes | 271 | $153 |
| Treasured-Liner-Cheddar | No | 200 | $87 |
| 0x24d41da5adcea52e718ee3f97de7136e8ce37849 | Yes | 140 | $79 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 132 | $58 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 09:53 AM ET | No | SELL | 61.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 04:39 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 35.0% | $18 |
| Oct 24, 12:00 AM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 11:33 PM ET | No | BUY | 65.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 10:41 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 53.0% | $25 |
| Oct 22, 09:38 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 34.0% | $10 |
| Oct 22, 08:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 30.0% | $2 |
| Oct 22, 06:14 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $11 |
| Oct 22, 01:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 68.0% | $24 |
| Oct 22, 01:45 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $43 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Lee Fairclough at 56.5%. Next is Person A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/ontario-liberal-party-leadership-election-winner?via=bro
$17.4K in total volume, with $84 traded in the last 24 hours across 19 markets.
The market is scheduled to end November 09, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Lee Fairclough, priced at 56.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.