As of October 24, 2026, 07:46 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 96.2% in OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? — $319.2K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 96.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.4 pts; past week: +1.5 pts; past month: +1.1 pts.
Since October 30, 2025, No has traded between 26.0% and 97.8%. It opened at 64.5% and last traded at 97.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | 97.5% |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 97.0% |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 96.8% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 97.2% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 97.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 97.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 97.8% |
No is favored at 96.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 96¢ | 96.2% | -0.4 pts | $319.2K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 4¢ | 3.8% | +0.4 pts | $319.2K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 0¢ (bid 4¢ / ask 4¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$319.2K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange. OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD. Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange. If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed. … (condensed)
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 3,029 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dear-Closet | No | 3,029 | $2.9K |
| Imaginative-River | No | 2,649 | $2.5K |
| Strict-Bacon | Yes | 1,903 | $71 |
| Golden-Unemployment | Yes | 1,853 | $69 |
| Ample-Instance | No | 1,560 | $1.5K |
| Improbable-Cormorant | Yes | 1,000 | $37 |
| Optimal-Miss | Yes | 932 | $35 |
| Original-Expense | Yes | 831 | $31 |
| Disgusting-Interval | Yes | 700 | $26 |
| Known-Use | No | 659 | $634 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23, 06:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 96.9% | $5 |
| Oct 23, 05:02 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 04:07 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 03:57 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 03:47 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 03:47 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 03:40 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 03:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $38 |
| Oct 23, 03:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $19 |
| Oct 23, 03:38 AM ET | No | SELL | 96.2% | $10 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 96.2%. Next is Yes at 3.8%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-1t-ipo-before-2027?via=bro
$319.2K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 96.2% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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