As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 89.0% in OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? — $334.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 89.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +1.5 pts; past week: +2.5 pts; past month: -4.5 pts.
Since October 28, 2025, No has traded between 72.5% and 93.0%. It opened at 80.5% and last traded at 89.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 91.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 89.0% |
No is favored at 89.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 89¢ | 89.0% | -1.5 pts | $334.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 11¢ | 11.0% | +1.5 pts | $334.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 12¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$334.8K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative of the company announces that it has created an artificial general intelligence (AGI) by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI and/or its official representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 22,071 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Poor-Carp | No | 22,071 | $19.6K |
| Vibrant-Vintner | Yes | 21,231 | $2.3K |
| Discrete-Aim | Yes | 6,283 | $691 |
| Key-Sovereignty | No | 5,593 | $5.0K |
| Pristine-Business | No | 5,389 | $4.8K |
| Trained-Sniffle | Yes | 5,004 | $550 |
| Scratchy-Loading | Yes | 4,416 | $486 |
| Attached-Example-Anesthesiologist | No | 4,246 | $3.8K |
| Opulent-Right | No | 3,756 | $3.3K |
| Homely-Amenity | No | 3,450 | $3.1K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $44 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $44 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $57 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $49 |
| Oct 24, 02:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 11.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 02:20 PM ET | No | SELL | 89.0% | $89 |
| Oct 24, 02:20 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $0 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 89.0%. Next is Yes at 11.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-announces-it-has-achieved-agi-before-2027?via=bro
$334.8K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 89.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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