Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:19 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Google at 88.5% in OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? — $9.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $264.
Leading outcome
Google
88%
A 88.5% price implies roughly a 88-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H +3.5 pts7D +3.5 pts30D −9.5 pts
Google88.5%
OpenAI + Anthropic12.0%
Bid
10¢
Ask
13¢
Spread
3¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since May 19, 2026: 67.5% – 94.0% · Opened at 72.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?
Category
Finance, Privates, Gemini, Claude, Big Tech, Dario Amodei, AI, chatgpt, OpenAI, sam altman, Anthropic
Scheduled end
January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$9.7K
Volume (24h)
$264
Liquidity
$2.0K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
Google — 88.5%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Google, is priced at 88.5%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.5 pts; past week: +3.5 pts; past month: -9.5 pts.

Since May 19, 2026, Google has traded between 67.5% and 94.0%. It opened at 72.0% and last traded at 88.5%.

DayClose
Oct 15, 202691.5%
Oct 16, 202690.0%
Oct 18, 202691.0%
Oct 19, 202691.5%
Oct 20, 202690.5%
Oct 23, 202691.5%
Oct 24, 202688.5%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Google is favored at 88.5%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Google88¢88.5%-3.5 pts$9.7K100.0%
OpenAI + Anthropic12¢12.0%+3.5 pts$9.7K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$9.7K has been traded on this event in total, $264 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to "OpenAI + Anthropic" if the combined private market valuation of Anthropic and OpenAI is larger than Google's market capitalization on December 31, 2026, or to "Google" if Google's market capitalization exceeds that combined valuation. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a private company completes an IPO or direct listing prior to the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company’s public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,171 shares of OpenAI + Anthropic.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Pretty-ProphetOpenAI + Anthropic2,171$261
Miniature-LeprosyGoogle1,360$1.2K
Grateful-ContributorGoogle724$641
Hearty-InformationGoogle365$323
Belated-GlueOpenAI + Anthropic315$38
Suburban-CellGoogle300$266
Evil-RowOpenAI + Anthropic151$18
Snappy-RoosterOpenAI + Anthropic99$12
0xc6f81bf3…Google95$84
Grim-GarageOpenAI + Anthropic71$9

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Google — $340 at 79.0%SELL Google — $63 at 87.0%SELL Google — $62 at 86.0%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:54 PM ETGoogleBUY89.1%$26
Oct 24, 06:54 PM ETGoogleBUY87.0%$18
Oct 24, 06:54 PM ETOpenAI + AnthropicSELL13.0%$9
Oct 24, 01:27 PM ETGoogleSELL86.0%$62
Oct 24, 01:27 PM ETGoogleSELL87.0%$63
Oct 22, 05:54 PM ETGoogleSELL90.0%$11
Oct 22, 05:54 PM ETGoogleSELL91.0%$11
Oct 22, 02:08 AM ETGoogleBUY92.0%$18
Oct 22, 02:08 AM ETGoogleBUY92.0%$18
Oct 22, 01:43 AM ETGoogleBUY92.0%$28

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Google at 88.5%. Next is OpenAI + Anthropic at 12.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-anthropic-vs-google-higher-valuation-on-december-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31??

$9.7K in total volume, with $264 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of OpenAI + Anthropic vs Google - higher valuation on December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

Google, priced at 88.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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