As of October 24, 2026, 08:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No at 88.5% in OpenAI criminally charged in the US in 2026? — $2.8K traded so far.
The leading outcome, No, is priced at 88.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — past month: -31.5 pts.
Since July 24, 2026, No has traded between 55.5% and 89.0%. It opened at 87.5% and last traded at 88.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 89.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 88.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 88.5% |
No is favored at 88.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No | 88¢ | 88.5% | — | $2.8K | 100.0% |
| Yes | 12¢ | 11.5% | — | $2.8K | 100.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 10¢ / ask 13¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.8K has been traded on this event in total, $0 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any Federal or State jurisdiction of the United States formally charges, files a criminal complaint, or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of OpenAI Foundation, OpenAI Group PBC or any parent, subsidiary, or successor of either entity, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State. A qualifying charge need not result in a conviction. This market will resolve to "Yes" even if the charge is later dismissed, reduced, or resolved through a deferred prosecution agreement, so long as it was filed or announced by the date specified above. Charges solely against individuals will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 1,471 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villainous-Crook | No | 1,471 | $1.3K |
| Cultivated-Diesel | Yes | 1,200 | $138 |
| Quarrelsome-Filth | Yes | 132 | $15 |
| Sorrowful-Samovar | No | 100 | $88 |
| Evil-Row | Yes | 65 | $7 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 65 | $7 |
| Charming-Kidney-Imagination | Yes | 50 | $6 |
| Creamy-Geology | Yes | 40 | $5 |
| Stale-Cashew | No | 30 | $26 |
| Infatuated-Nun | Yes | 29 | $3 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 10:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $18 |
| Oct 21, 04:26 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $4 |
| Oct 16, 03:36 PM ET | No | SELL | 88.0% | $9 |
| Oct 16, 09:36 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $3 |
| Oct 15, 04:07 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 11.0% | $2 |
| Oct 12, 01:31 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.0% | $2 |
| Oct 09, 01:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $2 |
| Oct 09, 01:39 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 10.0% | $8 |
| Oct 09, 01:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.8% | $1.2K |
| Oct 09, 01:30 PM ET | No | BUY | 73.0% | $15 |
As of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET, the leading outcome is No at 88.5%. Next is Yes at 11.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-criminally-charged-in-the-us-in-2026-20260724161916206?via=bro
$2.8K in total volume, with $0 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No, priced at 88.5% as of October 24, 2026, 08:45 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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