As of October 24, 2026, 07:43 PM ET, Polymarket traders price $800B at 72.9% in OpenAI IPO closing market cap above ___ ? — $1.57M traded so far.
The leading outcome, $800B, is priced at 72.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -1.1 pts; past week: -3.6 pts; past month: -13.1 pts.
Since January 31, 2026, $800B has traded between 52.5% and 96.8%. It opened at 71.0% and last traded at 72.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 79.0% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 78.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 77.9% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 75.8% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 76.4% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 74.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 72.9% |
$800B is favored at 72.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800B | 73¢ | 72.9% | -1.1 pts | $128.3K | 8.2% |
| $1T | 66¢ | 65.5% | +1.5 pts | $1.06M | 67.5% |
| $1.2T | 52¢ | 51.5% | -2.5 pts | $250.7K | 16.0% |
| $1.4T | 52¢ | 51.5% | +4.5 pts | $74.2K | 4.7% |
| $1.6T | 32¢ | 32.0% | +0.5 pts | $56.1K | 3.6% |
| $1.8T | 20¢ | 20.5% | -3.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| $2T | 20¢ | 19.5% | -4.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 72¢ / ask 74¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$1.57M has been traded on this event in total, $221 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for OpenAI's market capitalization on its first trading day is above the listed value. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI's first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 4,398 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bland-Flag | No | 4,398 | $1.2K |
| Svelte-Pedal | Yes | 2,796 | $2.0K |
| Growing-Way | Yes | 2,301 | $1.7K |
| Pointed-Chap | Yes | 1,776 | $1.3K |
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 1,555 | $1.1K |
| Hideous-Wraparound | No | 920 | $249 |
| Original-Knee | No | 625 | $169 |
| NoSteinNoGate | No | 622 | $169 |
| Partial-Crisp | Yes | 612 | $446 |
| Lovely-Sailor | No | 504 | $137 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:02 PM ET | No | BUY | 32.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 35.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 05:55 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 66.0% | $40 |
| Oct 24, 03:46 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.0% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:46 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 72.1% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 03:46 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 73.9% | $2 |
| Oct 24, 08:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 27.2% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 08:59 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 73.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 08:59 AM ET | No | BUY | 26.7% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 06:35 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 52.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is $800B at 72.9%. Next is $1T at 65.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap-above?via=bro
$1.57M in total volume, with $221 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
$800B, priced at 72.9% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.