As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price No IPO by December 31, 2026 at 96.2% in OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap — $2.45M traded so far.
The leading outcome, No IPO by December 31, 2026, is priced at 96.2%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.4 pts; past week: -0.5 pts; past month: -0.4 pts.
Since September 23, 2025, No IPO by December 31, 2026 has traded between 20.5% and 97.0%. It opened at 48.0% and last traded at 96.2%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.7% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 96.3% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.2% |
No IPO by December 31, 2026 is favored at 96.2%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No IPO by December 31, 2026 | 96¢ | 96.2% | -0.4 pts | $833.6K | 34.0% |
| 1.5T+ | 1¢ | 1.0% | -0.1 pts | $163.5K | 6.7% |
| <500B | 1¢ | 0.9% | +0.1 pts | $323.7K | 13.2% |
| 750B–1T | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $187.5K | 7.7% |
| 1T–1.25T | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.1 pts | $228.5K | 9.3% |
| 500–750B | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $177.0K | 7.2% |
| 1.25T–1.5T | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $536.1K | 21.9% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 1¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 97¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$2.45M has been traded on this event in total, $338 of it in the last 24 hours, across 7 markets.
This market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 42,257 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 42,257 | $1.6K |
| Mild-Contingency | Yes | 36,284 | $34.9K |
| Sarcastic-Door | No | 22,511 | $867 |
| Turbulent-Decline-Router | No | 22,249 | $857 |
| Palatable-Argument | Yes | 12,753 | $12.3K |
| Ample-Instance | Yes | 7,247 | $7.0K |
| Agitated-Jalapeño | Yes | 6,467 | $6.2K |
| 0x64a2137b… | Yes | 4,466 | $4.3K |
| Common-Nitrogen | Yes | 3,590 | $3.5K |
| Sparse-Cookie | Yes | 3,571 | $3.4K |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 02:45 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 95.6% | $295 |
| Oct 23, 05:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 1.3% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 0.6% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 05:52 PM ET | No | BUY | 3.7% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 03:49 PM ET | No | SELL | 3.2% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 03:47 PM ET | No | BUY | 3.3% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 03:38 PM ET | No | SELL | 3.2% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 03:35 PM ET | No | BUY | 3.3% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 03:28 PM ET | No | BUY | 3.3% | $1 |
| Oct 23, 08:49 AM ET | No | BUY | 3.6% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is No IPO by December 31, 2026 at 96.2%. Next is 1.5T+ at 1.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-ipo-closing-market-cap?via=bro
$2.45M in total volume, with $338 traded in the last 24 hours across 7 markets.
The market is scheduled to end December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
No IPO by December 31, 2026, priced at 96.2% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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