Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?

As of October 24, 2026, 08:17 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Meta at 94.0% in OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? — $12.4K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $10.
Leading outcome
Meta
94%
A 94.0% price implies roughly a 94-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
7D −1.0 pts30D −1.0 pts
Meta94.0%
OpenAI6.0%
Bid
3¢
Ask
9¢
Spread
6¢
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Range since May 19, 2026: 49.5% – 94.0% · Opened at 72.5%

Market facts

Event data
Event
OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?
Category
Finance, Privates, Mark Zuckerberg, Big Tech, AI, Meta, llm, sam altman, Llama, chatgpt, OpenAI, OpenAI IPO
Scheduled end
January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$12.4K
Volume (24h)
$10
Liquidity
$1.1K
Markets
1
Leading outcome
Meta — 94.0%

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Meta, is priced at 94.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — past week: -1.0 pts; past month: -1.0 pts.

Since May 19, 2026, Meta has traded between 49.5% and 94.0%. It opened at 72.5% and last traded at 94.0%.

DayClose
Oct 13, 202693.0%
Oct 15, 202693.0%
Oct 16, 202693.0%
Oct 18, 202693.0%
Oct 19, 202692.5%
Oct 20, 202690.5%
Oct 24, 202694.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Meta is favored at 94.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Meta94¢94.0%—$12.4K100.0%
OpenAI6¢6.0%—$12.4K100.0%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 6¢ (bid 3¢ / ask 9¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$12.4K has been traded on this event in total, $10 of it in the last 24 hours, across 1 market.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM) and the official closing price for the public company, for December 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest data available. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If the private company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. … (condensed)

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 799 shares of OpenAI.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Subdued-RevenantOpenAI799$48
Nutty-MusicianMeta748$703
Verifiable-Level-ConvictionMeta676$635
Golden-UnemploymentOpenAI604$36
Present-LambkinMeta580$546
NoSteinNoGateOpenAI545$33
Kind-DevelopmentalMeta417$392
Miniature-LeprosyMeta392$369
Finished-SubconsciousOpenAI318$19
Suburban-CellMeta300$282

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY Meta — $300 at 91.8%BUY Meta — $255 at 93.0%BUY Meta — $47 at 94.9%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 08:34 AM ETMetaSELL91.0%$9
Oct 23, 06:14 PM ETOpenAIBUY8.0%$1
Oct 23, 04:14 AM ETOpenAISELL4.0%$2
Oct 22, 01:50 PM ETOpenAIBUY12.0%$4
Oct 22, 10:56 AM ETOpenAIBUY11.0%$2
Oct 22, 10:56 AM ETOpenAIBUY10.0%$1
Oct 22, 10:07 AM ETOpenAIBUY8.0%$1
Oct 22, 07:42 AM ETOpenAISELL5.9%$6
Oct 22, 05:04 AM ETOpenAIBUY9.8%$12
Oct 20, 01:41 AM ETOpenAIBUY9.4%$8

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31??

As of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET, the leading outcome is Meta at 94.0%. Next is OpenAI at 6.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/openai-vs-meta-higher-valuation-on-december-31?via=bro

How much money has been traded on OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31??

$12.4K in total volume, with $10 traded in the last 24 hours across 1 markets.

When does OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31? end?

The market is scheduled to end January 04, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

What is the most likely outcome of OpenAI vs Meta — higher valuation on December 31?, according to Polymarket traders?

Meta, priced at 94.0% as of October 24, 2026, 08:08 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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