As of October 24, 2026, 06:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price The Invite at 93.9% in Oscars 2027: Best Adapted Screenplay Nominations — $24.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, The Invite, is priced at 93.9%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -0.8 pts; past week: +14.4 pts.
Since October 14, 2026, The Invite has traded between 79.5% and 95.3%. It opened at 83.0% and last traded at 93.9%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | 79.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 81.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 80.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 93.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 95.3% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 93.9% |
The Invite is favored at 93.9%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Invite | 94¢ | 93.9% | -0.8 pts | $937 | 3.8% |
| The Odyssey | 90¢ | 89.5% | +1.0 pts | $154 | 0.6% |
| The Black Ball | 88¢ | 88.5% | — | $985 | 4.0% |
| Project Hail Mary | 62¢ | 62.5% | -11.5 pts | $1.8K | 7.3% |
| All of a Sudden | 58¢ | 58.0% | -2.5 pts | $744 | 3.0% |
| The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 30¢ | 30.5% | +6.0 pts | $5.5K | 22.4% |
| Dune: Part Three | 29¢ | 29.0% | +0.5 pts | $476 | 1.9% |
| Ink | 19¢ | 19.0% | +2.5 pts | $2.8K | 11.4% |
| Clarissa | 14¢ | 14.5% | -2.0 pts | $1.7K | 7.1% |
| Wildwood | 5¢ | 4.8% | +0.4 pts | $1.6K | 6.7% |
| Cry to Heaven | 4¢ | 4.0% | -0.1 pts | $1.1K | 4.4% |
| Saturn Return | 4¢ | 3.9% | -16.2 pts | $46 | 0.2% |
| The Social Reckoning | 4¢ | 3.5% | — | $386 | 1.6% |
| The Whisper Man | 3¢ | 3.4% | +0.2 pts | $371 | 1.5% |
| Toy Story 5 | 3¢ | 3.0% | -0.1 pts | $5.8K | 24.0% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 90¢ / ask 98¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$24.4K has been traded on this event in total, $1.7K of it in the last 24 hours, across 15 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 277 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flickering-Circadian | Yes | 277 | $260 |
| Liquid-Argument | No | 189 | $12 |
| Infatuated-Nun | No | 70 | $4 |
| Skeletal-Liver | No | 30 | $2 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 21 | $1 |
| Harmonious-Yang | Yes | 21 | $20 |
| Measly-Gelatin | Yes | 20 | $19 |
| Belated-Glue | Yes | 20 | $19 |
| Gripping-Abolishment | No | 20 | $1 |
| Straight-Wrinkle | No | 14 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 67.6% | $135 |
| Oct 24, 06:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 69.0% | $14 |
| Oct 24, 06:53 AM ET | No | BUY | 67.8% | $68 |
| Oct 24, 02:30 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.4% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 02:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 74.1% | $375 |
| Oct 23, 10:52 PM ET | No | SELL | 74.4% | $15 |
| Oct 23, 08:52 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 18.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 02:14 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.6% | $7 |
| Oct 23, 12:59 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 25.4% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 11:32 AM ET | No | BUY | 73.0% | $20 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is The Invite at 93.9%. Next is The Odyssey at 89.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-adapted-screenplay-nominations-20261013180153422?via=bro
$24.4K in total volume, with $1.7K traded in the last 24 hours across 15 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Invite, priced at 93.9% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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