As of October 24, 2026, 06:28 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Christopher Nolan at 96.8% in Oscars 2027: Best Director Nominations — $30.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Christopher Nolan, is priced at 96.8%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +2.1 pts; past week: +0.2 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, Christopher Nolan has traded between 87.2% and 98.0%. It opened at 98.0% and last traded at 96.8%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 98.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 96.2% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 94.7% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 87.2% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 94.1% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.8% |
Christopher Nolan is favored at 96.8%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Nolan | 97¢ | 96.8% | +2.1 pts | $2.0K | 6.7% |
| Javier Calvo | 86¢ | 86.5% | -1.0 pts | $646 | 2.1% |
| Javier Ambrossi | 80¢ | 80.5% | -1.5 pts | $603 | 2.0% |
| Martin McDonagh | 72¢ | 72.5% | -1.0 pts | $1.7K | 5.6% |
| Nathan Fielder | 63¢ | 63.2% | +1.9 pts | $3.3K | 11.0% |
| Denis Villeneuve | 56¢ | 55.5% | -14.0 pts | $867 | 2.9% |
| Olivia Wilde | 49¢ | 49.0% | -8.0 pts | $3.3K | 11.1% |
| Ryusuke Hamaguchi | 27¢ | 27.0% | +1.0 pts | $1.3K | 4.2% |
| Jesse Eisenberg | 24¢ | 24.0% | +1.0 pts | $618 | 2.1% |
| Cristian Mungiu | 18¢ | 18.5% | -3.0 pts | $1.7K | 5.7% |
| David Fincher | 16¢ | 15.5% | +5.0 pts | $141 | 0.5% |
| Curry Barker | 11¢ | 10.5% | -0.1 pts | $102 | 0.3% |
| Christopher Miller | 10¢ | 10.0% | — | $1.8K | 5.9% |
| Paweł Pawlikowski | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $364 | 1.2% |
| Alejandro González Iñárritu | 9¢ | 9.0% | -1.5 pts | $677 | 2.2% |
| Phil Lord | 8¢ | 8.5% | +0.4 pts | $1.7K | 5.8% |
| Mike Leigh | 6¢ | 6.2% | -0.1 pts | $519 | 1.7% |
| Danny Boyle | 6¢ | 5.5% | — | $690 | 2.3% |
| Beth de Araujo | 6¢ | 5.5% | -0.5 pts | $932 | 3.1% |
| Na Hong-jin | 6¢ | 5.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.0K | 3.3% |
| Peter Farrelly | 6¢ | 5.5% | +0.5 pts | $329 | 1.1% |
| Tony Gilroy | 5¢ | 5.2% | +0.1 pts | $589 | 2.0% |
| Andrew Haigh | 5¢ | 5.0% | -0.5 pts | $161 | 0.5% |
| Ben Affleck | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $2.0K | 6.8% |
| Janus Metz Pedersen | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $607 | 2.0% |
| Joel Coen | 4¢ | 4.5% | — | $436 | 1.4% |
| Aaron Sorkin | 4¢ | 4.0% | — | $223 | 0.7% |
| Steven Spielberg | 4¢ | 4.0% | +0.3 pts | $1.3K | 4.3% |
| James Ashcroft | 3¢ | 2.6% | -0.1 pts | $392 | 1.3% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 95¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$30.1K has been traded on this event in total, $1.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 29 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed director is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 272 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat-Badger | Yes | 272 | $263 |
| Crazy-Fishmonger | Yes | 137 | $132 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 119 | $4 |
| Cool-Pattypan | No | 100 | $3 |
| Eager-Bumper | No | 50 | $2 |
| Outlandish-Complicity | Yes | 38 | $37 |
| Good-Gram-Prostacyclin | No | 38 | $1 |
| Rowdy-Tenement | No | 30 | $1 |
| Untimely-Shield-Trout | No | 23 | $1 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 21 | $1 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 63.6% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 03:11 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 62.6% | $11 |
| Oct 24, 02:36 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 58.9% | $29 |
| Oct 24, 02:01 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 59.2% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 37.4% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:43 PM ET | No | BUY | 36.9% | $37 |
| Oct 24, 09:50 AM ET | No | BUY | 30.8% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 AM ET | No | BUY | 36.5% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 01:19 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 47.0% | $34 |
| Oct 23, 10:07 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 71.0% | $100 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Christopher Nolan at 96.8%. Next is Javier Calvo at 86.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-director-nominations-20261013180153422?via=bro
$30.1K in total volume, with $1.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 29 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Christopher Nolan, priced at 96.8% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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