As of October 24, 2026, 06:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Christopher Nolan at 58.0% in Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner — $54.7K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Christopher Nolan, is priced at 58.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: -7.5 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.
Since August 06, 2026, Christopher Nolan has traded between 34.5% and 73.5%. It opened at 63.0% and last traded at 58.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 66.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 64.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 64.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 63.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 62.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 58.0% |
Christopher Nolan is favored at 58.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Nolan | 58¢ | 58.0% | -3.0 pts | $27.0K | 49.3% |
| xxxxx | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Director Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Lance Oppenheim | 17¢ | 17.2% | +12.9 pts | $1.7K | 3.2% |
| Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi | 10¢ | 10.5% | -5.5 pts | $1.5K | 2.8% |
| Denis Villeneuve | 9¢ | 9.0% | -4.5 pts | $12.4K | 22.7% |
| Martin McDonagh | 2¢ | 1.6% | -0.1 pts | $888 | 1.6% |
| Alejandro G. Iñárritu | 2¢ | 1.6% | -0.5 pts | $2.4K | 4.5% |
| Olivia Wilde | 2¢ | 1.5% | -0.1 pts | $947 | 1.7% |
| Aaron Sorkin | 1¢ | 0.6% | -0.4 pts | $811 | 1.5% |
| Cristian Mungiu | 1¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $548 | 1.0% |
| Phil Lord or Christopher Miller | 0¢ | 0.5% | -1.1 pts | $954 | 1.7% |
| Andrew Haigh | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $74 | 0.1% |
| Joel Coen | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $86 | 0.2% |
| Ryusuke Hamaguchi | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $548 | 1.0% |
| David Fincher | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $74 | 0.1% |
| Mike Leigh | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $86 | 0.2% |
| Peter Farrelly | 0¢ | 0.4% | -3.3 pts | $1.0K | 1.9% |
| Steven Spielberg | 0¢ | 0.4% | +0.1 pts | $805 | 1.5% |
| Jesse Eisenberg | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.4 pts | $795 | 1.5% |
| Jordan Firstman | 0¢ | 0.2% | — | $688 | 1.3% |
| Bassam Tariq | 0¢ | 0.1% | -0.2 pts | $607 | 1.1% |
| David O. Russell | 0¢ | 0.1% | -1.1 pts | $683 | 1.2% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 56¢ / ask 60¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$54.7K has been traded on this event in total, $6.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 41 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. Where an option lists more than one director, if one of the listed directors wins individually, or both listed options win jointly, that option will resolve to "Yes". If only one of the jointly listed directors is a joint winner with another individual (e.g., tied with a director from another option), only the winning listed director's last names will be considered for the purposes of alphabetical ordering. If both jointly listed directors win alongside one or more directors not listed in that option, all winning listed directors last names will be considered for the purposes of alphabetical ordering. … (condensed)
Resolution source: https://www.oscars.org/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,683 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Silver-Angora | Yes | 2,683 | $1.6K |
| Shameful-Cinnamon | No | 1,638 | $688 |
| Ajar-Sportsman | No | 1,395 | $586 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 1,053 | $442 |
| Even-Eating | Yes | 759 | $440 |
| Weird-Wire | Yes | 593 | $344 |
| Gifted-Rancher | No | 519 | $218 |
| Thankful-Lookout | No | 425 | $178 |
| Definitive-Anticodon | Yes | 414 | $240 |
| 0xe636f179… | Yes | 310 | $180 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:03 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 56.4% | $141 |
| Oct 24, 04:00 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $125 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 01:10 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:36 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.3% | $38 |
| Oct 24, 12:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $35 |
| Oct 24, 12:31 PM ET | No | BUY | 90.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 12:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $16 |
| Oct 24, 12:08 PM ET | No | BUY | 43.0% | $22 |
| Oct 24, 12:07 PM ET | No | BUY | 89.0% | $27 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Christopher Nolan at 58.0%. Next is xxxxx at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-director-winner-20260727173335231?via=bro
$54.7K in total volume, with $6.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 41 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.oscars.org/.
Christopher Nolan, priced at 58.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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