Live Odds · Updated October 24, 2026

Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner

As of October 24, 2026, 06:58 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Christopher Nolan at 58.0% in Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner — $54.7K traded so far.

Last updated October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET with live prices from Polymarket. 24h volume: $6.4K.
Leading outcome
Christopher Nolan
58%
A 58.0% price implies roughly a 58-in-100 chance, set by traders risking real money.
24H −3.0 pts7D −7.5 pts30D +0.5 pts
Christopher Nolan58.0%
xxxxx50.0%
Bid
56¢
Ask
60¢
Spread
4¢
Trade on Polymarket →
Range since August 06, 2026: 34.5% – 73.5% · Opened at 63.0%

Market facts

Event data
Event
Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner
Category
Awards, Movies, Oscars, Culture, Oscars 2027, The Odyssey
Scheduled end
June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET
Total volume
$54.7K
Volume (24h)
$6.4K
Liquidity
$33.8K
Markets
41
Leading outcome
Christopher Nolan — 58.0%
Resolution source
https://www.oscars.org/

What is the current price?

Momentum & history

The leading outcome, Christopher Nolan, is priced at 58.0%.

Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -3.0 pts; past week: -7.5 pts; past month: +0.5 pts.

Since August 06, 2026, Christopher Nolan has traded between 34.5% and 73.5%. It opened at 63.0% and last traded at 58.0%.

DayClose
Oct 16, 202666.5%
Oct 18, 202664.0%
Oct 19, 202664.5%
Oct 20, 202663.5%
Oct 22, 202662.0%
Oct 23, 202661.0%
Oct 24, 202658.0%

Who is favored to win?

Outcomes

Christopher Nolan is favored at 58.0%.

OutcomePriceImplied probability24h changeVolumeVolume share
Christopher Nolan58¢58.0%-3.0 pts$27.0K49.3%
xxxxx50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director H50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director J50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director K50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director L50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director M50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director N50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director O50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director P50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director Q50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director R50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director S50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director T50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director U50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director V50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director W50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director X50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director Y50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Director Z50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Other50¢50.0%+0.0 pts$00.0%
Lance Oppenheim17¢17.2%+12.9 pts$1.7K3.2%
Javier Calvo or Javier Ambrossi10¢10.5%-5.5 pts$1.5K2.8%
Denis Villeneuve9¢9.0%-4.5 pts$12.4K22.7%
Martin McDonagh2¢1.6%-0.1 pts$8881.6%
Alejandro G. Iñárritu2¢1.6%-0.5 pts$2.4K4.5%
Olivia Wilde2¢1.5%-0.1 pts$9471.7%
Aaron Sorkin1¢0.6%-0.4 pts$8111.5%
Cristian Mungiu1¢0.5%-0.1 pts$5481.0%
Phil Lord or Christopher Miller0¢0.5%-1.1 pts$9541.7%
Andrew Haigh0¢0.5%-0.1 pts$740.1%
Joel Coen0¢0.5%-0.1 pts$860.2%
Ryusuke Hamaguchi0¢0.5%-0.1 pts$5481.0%
David Fincher0¢0.5%-0.1 pts$740.1%
Mike Leigh0¢0.5%-0.1 pts$860.2%
Peter Farrelly0¢0.4%-3.3 pts$1.0K1.9%
Steven Spielberg0¢0.4%+0.1 pts$8051.5%
Jesse Eisenberg0¢0.4%-0.4 pts$7951.5%
Jordan Firstman0¢0.2%—$6881.3%
Bassam Tariq0¢0.1%-0.2 pts$6071.1%
David O. Russell0¢0.1%-1.1 pts$6831.2%

See the full live book for this market on Polymarket

The leading market's spread is 4¢ (bid 56¢ / ask 60¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.

How much has been traded?

Volume

$54.7K has been traded on this event in total, $6.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 41 markets.

When does this market resolve?

Rules

This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed director who wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated director whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. Where an option lists more than one director, if one of the listed directors wins individually, or both listed options win jointly, that option will resolve to "Yes". If only one of the jointly listed directors is a joint winner with another individual (e.g., tied with a director from another option), only the winning listed director's last names will be considered for the purposes of alphabetical ordering. If both jointly listed directors win alongside one or more directors not listed in that option, all winning listed directors last names will be considered for the purposes of alphabetical ordering. … (condensed)

Resolution source: https://www.oscars.org/

What do the biggest traders hold?

Top holders

The largest current holder of the leading market holds 2,683 shares of Yes.

HolderOutcome heldSharesValue at current price
Silver-AngoraYes2,683$1.6K
Shameful-CinnamonNo1,638$688
Ajar-SportsmanNo1,395$586
0xa5ef39c3…No1,053$442
Even-EatingYes759$440
Weird-WireYes593$344
Gifted-RancherNo519$218
Thankful-LookoutNo425$178
Definitive-AnticodonYes414$240
0xe636f179…Yes310$180

What are the latest trades?

Tape
BUY No — $339 at 88.7%BUY No — $282 at 88.0%SELL Yes — $141 at 56.4%
TimeOutcomeSidePriceSize
Oct 24, 06:03 PM ETYesSELL56.4%$141
Oct 24, 04:00 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$125
Oct 24, 01:10 PM ETNoBUY43.0%$4
Oct 24, 01:10 PM ETNoBUY43.0%$6
Oct 24, 12:36 PM ETNoBUY90.3%$38
Oct 24, 12:31 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$35
Oct 24, 12:31 PM ETNoBUY90.0%$9
Oct 24, 12:11 PM ETNoBUY43.0%$16
Oct 24, 12:08 PM ETNoBUY43.0%$22
Oct 24, 12:07 PM ETNoBUY89.0%$27

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Frequently asked questions

FAQ

What are the odds of Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner?

As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is Christopher Nolan at 58.0%. Next is xxxxx at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-director-winner-20260727173335231?via=bro

How much money has been traded on Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner?

$54.7K in total volume, with $6.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 41 markets.

When does Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner end?

The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.oscars.org/.

What is the most likely outcome of Oscars 2027: Best Director Winner, according to Polymarket traders?

Christopher Nolan, priced at 58.0% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.

Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.

⚠️ Not financial advice: odds swing hard on news. Never bet money you can't afford to lose, and always read a market's resolution rules before trading.

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