As of October 24, 2026, 08:02 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Pale Sun at 49.0% in Oscars 2027: Best Live Action Short Film Nominations — $36.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Pale Sun, is priced at 49.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: -6.0 pts; past week: +6.0 pts.
Since October 15, 2026, Pale Sun has traded between 47.0% and 69.5%. It opened at 69.5% and last traded at 48.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 61.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 47.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 57.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 52.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 55.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 48.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 48.5% |
Pale Sun is favored at 49.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pale Sun | 49¢ | 49.0% | -6.0 pts | $20 | 0.1% |
| Agapito | 36¢ | 36.5% | +4.0 pts | $3.1K | 8.5% |
| Magan's Fare | 33¢ | 33.0% | +5.0 pts | $5.8K | 15.9% |
| Meeting Your Maker | 30¢ | 30.5% | +2.0 pts | $2.6K | 7.0% |
| Nightfaces | 30¢ | 30.0% | -2.0 pts | $220 | 0.6% |
| Mary is Missing | 27¢ | 27.0% | -9.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Spilled Milk | 12¢ | 12.5% | -2.0 pts | $2.6K | 7.1% |
| The Birthday Gift | 8¢ | 7.5% | -0.5 pts | $4.3K | 11.8% |
| The Man That I Wave At | 7¢ | 7.0% | -0.5 pts | $10.8K | 29.6% |
| 32B | 4¢ | 3.6% | — | $7.1K | 19.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 48¢ / ask 50¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$36.4K has been traded on this event in total, $1.4K of it in the last 24 hours, across 10 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Live Action Short Film when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 20 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Piercing-Formation | Yes | 20 | $10 |
| Zigzag-Conspirator-Glee | No | 20 | $10 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 01:08 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 07:59 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 07:56 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 27.0% | $27 |
| Oct 23, 04:49 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 2.2% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 12:50 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 8.0% | $2 |
| Oct 23, 09:23 AM ET | No | SELL | 92.0% | $18 |
| Oct 23, 09:23 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 7.0% | $20 |
| Oct 23, 08:45 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $14 |
| Oct 23, 07:56 AM ET | No | SELL | 71.0% | $71 |
| Oct 23, 07:56 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 29.0% | $29 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Pale Sun at 49.0%. Next is Agapito at 36.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-live-action-short-film-nominations-20261013180153422?via=bro
$36.4K in total volume, with $1.4K traded in the last 24 hours across 10 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Pale Sun, priced at 49.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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