As of October 24, 2026, 08:00 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Wild Horse Nine at 60.0% in Oscars 2027: Best Original Screenplay Winner — $44.1K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Wild Horse Nine, is priced at 60.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.5 pts; past week: +2.0 pts; past month: +14.0 pts.
Since August 06, 2026, Wild Horse Nine has traded between 29.5% and 60.0%. It opened at 37.5% and last traded at 60.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 56.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 57.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 60.0% |
Wild Horse Nine is favored at 60.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wild Horse Nine | 60¢ | 60.0% | +3.5 pts | $31.0K | 70.4% |
| Movie A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Movie Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| The Debut | 20¢ | 20.2% | -0.7 pts | $3.3K | 7.4% |
| Club Kid | 8¢ | 8.0% | +1.3 pts | $571 | 1.3% |
| Fjord | 7¢ | 6.9% | +0.8 pts | $2.8K | 6.4% |
| Obsession | 6¢ | 6.5% | — | $939 | 2.1% |
| Digger | 6¢ | 5.9% | — | $3.4K | 7.8% |
| Elsinore | 5¢ | 5.3% | — | $878 | 2.0% |
| The Drama | 4¢ | 3.5% | — | $59 | 0.1% |
| The Invite | 3¢ | 3.2% | — | $120 | 0.3% |
| Josephine | 3¢ | 3.0% | — | $59 | 0.1% |
| Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma | 3¢ | 2.7% | — | $102 | 0.2% |
| The Odyssey | 3¢ | 2.6% | — | $81 | 0.2% |
| A Place in Hell | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $122 | 0.3% |
| The Adventures of Cliff Booth | 1¢ | 0.6% | — | $168 | 0.4% |
| Forgotten Island | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $142 | 0.3% |
| Fatherland | 0¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $102 | 0.2% |
| The Black Ball | 0¢ | 0.4% | -0.3 pts | $165 | 0.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 8¢ (bid 56¢ / ask 64¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$44.1K has been traded on this event in total, $162 of it in the last 24 hours, across 44 markets.
This market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution source: https://www.oscars.org/
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 5,033 shares of No.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ample-Instance | No | 5,033 | $2.0K |
| Mixed-Unity | Yes | 3,715 | $2.2K |
| Respectful-Vibration | Yes | 2,743 | $1.6K |
| Fat-Fat-Hourglass | No | 1,949 | $780 |
| 0xe636f179… | Yes | 659 | $396 |
| Pristine-Business | Yes | 654 | $392 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 610 | $244 |
| Nonstop-Retrospective | Yes | 408 | $245 |
| 0xd4b727de… | Yes | 371 | $223 |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 329 | $132 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 04:02 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 58.0% | $91 |
| Oct 24, 03:03 PM ET | No | BUY | 82.7% | $4 |
| Oct 21, 06:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $1 |
| Oct 21, 06:29 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 55.5% | $235 |
| Oct 21, 04:11 PM ET | No | BUY | 44.0% | $157 |
| Oct 21, 07:59 AM ET | No | SELL | 43.0% | $9 |
| Oct 20, 03:12 PM ET | No | BUY | 44.0% | $9 |
| Oct 19, 02:50 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $5 |
| Oct 17, 12:21 AM ET | No | BUY | 80.1% | $24 |
| Oct 17, 12:21 AM ET | No | SELL | 36.0% | $1 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is Wild Horse Nine at 60.0%. Next is Movie A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-original-screenplay-winner-1754500000000?via=bro
$44.1K in total volume, with $162 traded in the last 24 hours across 44 markets.
The market is scheduled to end June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. It resolves based on https://www.oscars.org/.
Wild Horse Nine, priced at 60.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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