As of October 24, 2026, 08:01 PM ET, Polymarket traders price La Nieve - The Black Ball at 90.0% in Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Nominations — $42.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, La Nieve - The Black Ball, is priced at 90.0%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +4.0 pts.
Since October 16, 2026, La Nieve - The Black Ball has traded between 60.0% and 91.5%. It opened at 60.0% and last traded at 90.0%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 60.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 91.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 89.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 90.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 90.0% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 90.0% |
La Nieve - The Black Ball is favored at 90.0%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Nieve - The Black Ball | 90¢ | 90.0% | — | $725 | 1.7% |
| This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut | 82¢ | 81.5% | -0.4 pts | $4.1K | 9.8% |
| I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5 | 72¢ | 72.5% | — | $582 | 1.4% |
| By Any Means - By Any Means | 66¢ | 66.0% | — | $974 | 2.3% |
| How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad | 37¢ | 37.0% | -5.5 pts | $1.6K | 3.9% |
| Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 2 | 36¢ | 36.5% | -13.5 pts | $777 | 1.9% |
| Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth! | 34¢ | 34.0% | +9.0 pts | $2.5K | 6.0% |
| When I'm Home - The Odyssey | 32¢ | 32.5% | +3.5 pts | $3.5K | 8.4% |
| Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk | 26¢ | 26.0% | +3.5 pts | $3.8K | 9.1% |
| Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights | 2¢ | 1.8% | +0.1 pts | $19.7K | 47.0% |
| Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn | 1¢ | 0.6% | -11.9 pts | $3.6K | 8.6% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 2¢ (bid 89¢ / ask 91¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$42.0K has been traded on this event in total, $2.1K of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed song is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Song. If a song is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Song when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 328 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flat-Badger | Yes | 328 | $296 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 86 | $9 |
| Scary-Neck-Vascular | No | 50 | $5 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 45 | $5 |
| Standard-Jackal | No | 41 | $4 |
| Grand-Lift | No | 28 | $3 |
| Apt-Antecedent | No | 20 | $2 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 20 | $2 |
| Bossy-Birdcage-Period | No | 20 | $2 |
| Dental-Marriage | No | 20 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 72.0% | $72 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 27.0% | $27 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 PM ET | No | SELL | 73.0% | $123 |
| Oct 24, 07:20 AM ET | No | SELL | 73.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 07:15 AM ET | No | SELL | 75.0% | $4 |
| Oct 24, 02:28 AM ET | No | SELL | 76.0% | $5 |
| Oct 24, 01:16 AM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $4 |
| Oct 23, 09:22 PM ET | No | SELL | 76.4% | $10 |
| Oct 23, 08:12 PM ET | No | SELL | 77.0% | $0 |
| Oct 23, 07:49 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $12 |
As of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET, the leading outcome is La Nieve - The Black Ball at 90.0%. Next is This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut at 81.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-original-song-nominations-20261013180153422?via=bro
$42.0K in total volume, with $2.1K traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
La Nieve - The Black Ball, priced at 90.0% as of October 24, 2026, 07:36 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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