As of October 24, 2026, 06:36 PM ET, Polymarket traders price La Nieve - The Black Ball at 61.5% in Oscars 2027: Best Original Song Winner — $8.0K traded so far.
The leading outcome, La Nieve - The Black Ball, is priced at 61.5%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +3.5 pts; past week: +48.5 pts.
Since October 15, 2026, La Nieve - The Black Ball has traded between 13.5% and 61.0%. It opened at 25.5% and last traded at 57.5%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 19.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 13.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 39.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 43.0% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 61.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 50.0% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 57.5% |
La Nieve - The Black Ball is favored at 61.5%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Nieve - The Black Ball | 62¢ | 61.5% | +3.5 pts | $2.4K | 29.7% |
| Song A | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song B | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song C | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song D | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song E | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song F | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song G | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song H | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song I | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song J | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song K | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song L | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song M | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song N | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song O | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song P | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song Q | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song R | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song S | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song T | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song U | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song V | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song W | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song X | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song Y | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Song Z | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Other | 50¢ | 50.0% | +0.0 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| This City May Have Chewed Me Up (But It Hasn't Spit Me Out) - The Debut | 17¢ | 17.0% | -5.0 pts | $770 | 9.7% |
| I Knew It, I Knew You - Toy Story 5 | 16¢ | 15.5% | — | $1.0K | 12.7% |
| Let Me Sell You a Dream - Musk | 8¢ | 7.8% | +0.4 pts | $708 | 8.9% |
| Your God is Sleeping - Behemoth! | 1¢ | 0.7% | — | $370 | 4.6% |
| By Any Means - By Any Means | 1¢ | 0.5% | — | $332 | 4.2% |
| When I'm Home - The Odyssey | 1¢ | 0.5% | -0.1 pts | $724 | 9.1% |
| Runway - The Devil Wears Prada 2 | 0¢ | 0.5% | +0.1 pts | $428 | 5.4% |
| Too Much to Ask - Ray Gunn | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $452 | 5.7% |
| Chains of Love - Wuthering Heights | 0¢ | 0.5% | — | $454 | 5.7% |
| How to Write a Song About You - Power Ballad | 0¢ | 0.4% | — | $347 | 4.4% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 17¢ (bid 53¢ / ask 70¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$8.0K has been traded on this event in total, $179 of it in the last 24 hours, across 38 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 07:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 99th Academy Award for Best Original Song. If a song is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Song when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order. If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 546 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unfit-Hardboard | Yes | 546 | $336 |
| Narrow-Prune | Yes | 469 | $288 |
| 0xa5ef39c3… | No | 341 | $131 |
| Unlined-Pole | No | 300 | $116 |
| Respectful-Vibration | Yes | 250 | $154 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 130 | $50 |
| Trained-Picket | No | 128 | $49 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 99 | $38 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 79 | $30 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 76 | $29 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:24 PM ET | No | SELL | 45.0% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 12:17 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 58.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 10:47 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:46 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 12.1% | $9 |
| Oct 24, 07:11 AM ET | Yes | BUY | 16.0% | $6 |
| Oct 23, 11:04 PM ET | No | SELL | 41.0% | $8 |
| Oct 23, 05:30 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 14.0% | $3 |
| Oct 23, 05:29 PM ET | No | BUY | 79.0% | $16 |
| Oct 23, 05:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 63.0% | $13 |
| Oct 23, 05:29 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 57.0% | $46 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is La Nieve - The Black Ball at 61.5%. Next is Song A at 50.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-original-song-winner-20261013180153422?via=bro
$8.0K in total volume, with $179 traded in the last 24 hours across 38 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 07:59 PM ET.
La Nieve - The Black Ball, priced at 61.5% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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