As of October 24, 2026, 06:57 PM ET, Polymarket traders price The Black Ball at 96.4% in Oscars 2027: Best Production Design Nominations — $31.4K traded so far.
The leading outcome, The Black Ball, is priced at 96.4%.
Price changes for the leading market — past week: +56.9 pts.
Since October 15, 2026, The Black Ball has traded between 32.0% and 96.5%. It opened at 49.5% and last traded at 96.4%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 32.0% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 60.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 56.5% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 96.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 96.4% |
| Oct 24, 2026 | 96.4% |
The Black Ball is favored at 96.4%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Black Ball | 96¢ | 96.4% | — | $648 | 2.1% |
| The Odyssey | 84¢ | 84.5% | -2.5 pts | $3.3K | 10.4% |
| Project Hail Mary | 68¢ | 68.0% | -1.0 pts | $2.7K | 8.6% |
| Digger | 63¢ | 63.0% | — | $202 | 0.6% |
| Dune: Part Three | 62¢ | 62.5% | -0.5 pts | $1.8K | 5.7% |
| Werwulf | 46¢ | 46.0% | -1.5 pts | $975 | 3.1% |
| Sense and Sensibility | 33¢ | 33.0% | -4.0 pts | $793 | 2.5% |
| The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth | 32¢ | 32.5% | -3.5 pts | $8.4K | 26.8% |
| Backrooms | 18¢ | 17.5% | — | $3.0K | 9.5% |
| Wuthering Heights | 11¢ | 11.0% | +6.5 pts | $2.2K | 7.1% |
| Wildwood | 4¢ | 3.6% | — | $7.4K | 23.5% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 5¢ (bid 94¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$31.4K has been traded on this event in total, $7.3K of it in the last 24 hours, across 11 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Production Design. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Production Design when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 580 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Long-Term-Slime-Capon | Yes | 580 | $559 |
| Infatuated-Nun | No | 120 | $4 |
| Gleaming-Handlebar | No | 116 | $4 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 110 | $4 |
| Oddball-Poison | No | 100 | $4 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 51 | $2 |
| Zigzag-Conspirator-Glee | No | 50 | $2 |
| 0x03547405… | No | 49 | $2 |
| 0x4dc0fae9… | Yes | 16 | $15 |
| Beneficial-Shackle | Yes | 2 | $2 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 06:52 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 26.2% | $26 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | No | BUY | 72.0% | $7 |
| Oct 24, 06:51 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 23.0% | $46 |
| Oct 24, 01:57 PM ET | No | SELL | 14.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:48 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $10 |
| Oct 24, 01:32 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 01:26 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $20 |
| Oct 24, 01:20 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 20.0% | $19 |
| Oct 24, 01:18 PM ET | Yes | BUY | 19.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 01:17 PM ET | No | BUY | 71.0% | $5 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET, the leading outcome is The Black Ball at 96.4%. Next is The Odyssey at 84.5%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-production-design-nominations-20261013180153422?via=bro
$31.4K in total volume, with $7.3K traded in the last 24 hours across 11 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Black Ball, priced at 96.4% as of October 24, 2026, 06:53 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
Browse the live odds index, today's biggest movers, and Whale Watch for the largest positions.
Prices move fast. Check the live book, read the resolution rules, and size small while you learn.
Sign Up on PolymarketNew here? Start with the complete beginner guide, then run any stake through the payout calculator before you trade.