As of October 24, 2026, 06:30 PM ET, Polymarket traders price Project Hail Mary at 97.7% in Oscars 2027: Best Sound Nominations — $23.5K traded so far.
The leading outcome, Project Hail Mary, is priced at 97.7%.
Price changes for the leading market — 24 hours: +0.8 pts; past week: +10.2 pts.
Since October 15, 2026, Project Hail Mary has traded between 73.0% and 97.1%. It opened at 75.5% and last traded at 97.1%.
| Day | Close |
|---|---|
| Oct 16, 2026 | 75.5% |
| Oct 17, 2026 | 87.5% |
| Oct 18, 2026 | 86.0% |
| Oct 19, 2026 | 84.5% |
| Oct 20, 2026 | 73.0% |
| Oct 22, 2026 | 92.5% |
| Oct 23, 2026 | 97.1% |
Project Hail Mary is favored at 97.7%.
| Outcome | Price | Implied probability | 24h change | Volume | Volume share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project Hail Mary | 98¢ | 97.7% | +0.8 pts | $1.6K | 6.7% |
| The Odyssey | 77¢ | 77.0% | -0.5 pts | $4.0K | 16.9% |
| Dune: Part Three | 70¢ | 69.5% | -2.5 pts | $1.2K | 5.0% |
| Werwulf | 58¢ | 58.5% | -6.5 pts | $1.7K | 7.4% |
| The Black Ball | 43¢ | 43.0% | -13.0 pts | $3.8K | 16.0% |
| Whalefall | 34¢ | 33.5% | — | $0 | 0.0% |
| The Mosquito Bowl | 32¢ | 32.0% | -0.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Behemoth! | 30¢ | 30.5% | +0.5 pts | $0 | 0.0% |
| Michael | 22¢ | 22.5% | — | $1.9K | 8.2% |
| Godzilla Minus Zero | 18¢ | 18.5% | -3.0 pts | $362 | 1.5% |
| Disclosure Day | 17¢ | 17.0% | +4.5 pts | $8 | 0.0% |
| The End of Oak Street | 10¢ | 9.5% | — | $96 | 0.4% |
| Digger | 8¢ | 7.5% | -3.5 pts | $6.3K | 26.7% |
| The Debut | 4¢ | 4.2% | -2.1 pts | $2.6K | 11.1% |
See the full live book for this market on Polymarket
The leading market's spread is 3¢ (bid 96¢ / ask 99¢) — a tighter spread means cheaper round-trip trading.
$23.5K has been traded on this event in total, $1.2K of it in the last 24 hours, across 14 markets.
This market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 99th Academy Awards in 2027, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 21, followed by the ceremony on March 14, 2027. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed film is nominated for the 99th Academy Award for Best Sound. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Sound when the 2027 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The largest current holder of the leading market holds 742 shares of Yes.
| Holder | Outcome held | Shares | Value at current price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Well-Informed-Ischemia | Yes | 742 | $725 |
| Grim-Garage | No | 232 | $5 |
| Belated-Glue | No | 198 | $5 |
| Direct-Chainstay | No | 143 | $3 |
| Plump-Implementation | No | 100 | $2 |
| Untimely-Shield-Trout | No | 42 | $1 |
| Concerned-Nylon | No | 23 | $1 |
| Sweltering-Passion-Fragrance | No | 5 | $0 |
| Time | Outcome | Side | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 12:40 PM ET | No | SELL | 22.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 12:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 77.0% | $58 |
| Oct 24, 12:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 23.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 23.0% | $12 |
| Oct 24, 12:40 PM ET | No | BUY | 23.0% | $6 |
| Oct 24, 12:40 PM ET | Yes | SELL | 77.0% | $102 |
| Oct 24, 11:38 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $1 |
| Oct 24, 10:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $3 |
| Oct 24, 10:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 8.0% | $0 |
| Oct 24, 10:45 AM ET | Yes | SELL | 9.0% | $3 |
As of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET, the leading outcome is Project Hail Mary at 97.7%. Next is The Odyssey at 77.0%. See the live book on Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/oscars-2027-best-sound-nominations-20261013180153422?via=bro
$23.5K in total volume, with $1.2K traded in the last 24 hours across 14 markets.
The market is scheduled to end March 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
Project Hail Mary, priced at 97.7% as of October 24, 2026, 06:19 PM ET. Prices are implied probabilities backed by real-money trading.
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